ABC 33/40 E-Forecast
ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Sunday October 21, 2007
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..Some Rain in Our Future...
If this current spate of nice weekend weather had happened in any
other year, we would almost certainly be celebrating. But given our
current D4 drought status (the worst category), it is difficult to
enjoy. We are guardedly optimistic that some rainfall is in our
future over the next few days, but you have heard that before.
Personally, I will believe it when I see it, but let's get into the
forecast.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASING: A warm and moist southeasterly flow
will begin increasing this morning across our area. Temperatures
will warm into the middle 80s, with a few spots in the upper 80s.
Southeasterly winds will be on the breezy side at about 6-12 mph.
Moisture levels will be on the increase, with dewpoints steadily
rising into the 60s after midnight tonight. As the moisture surges
into the area, showers will break out tonight, generally after midnight.
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN OUR FUTURE? The GFS, our main global
forecasting model, has consistently portrayed the idea of a cut off
upper level low forming from the strong upper trough over the western
United States by Monday. This position of this upper low will be
important in someone's weather. By Monday morning, the trough will
be over the central part of the nation, pushing a front to the east.
Copious amounts of moisture will be flowing into Alabama from the
south, producing widespread showers and storms over the state.
Hopefully. Strong high pressure to the east will cause the frontal
system to slow down and perhaps stall near our state. If we can get
the rainfall band to stall over Alabama, it could produce some
excellent rainfall amounts. There is a chance that there could be a
couple of strong storms with the system, but the chance looks small
for now. By Monday night, the upper low is expected to form to the
west. If it is over the Arklatex, as is expected, showery, unsettled
conditions will be the rule for Alabama through Wednesday morning, at
least with showers possible through Friday. Thursday looks like the
driest day, with a dry slot over the state. The big trough finally
pushes east of the state by Friday with a cold front bringing fair
conditions for the weekend.
WESTERN SNOWS: Heavy snows will spread across the higher elevations
of the Northern and Central Rockies today as the powerful shortwave
trough traverses that area. Snow levels will drop to near 5,000
feet. A winter storm warning is in effect for the Aspen and Vail
areas, where ten inches is expected tonight along with another four
tomorrow. Lows will be in the single digits tomorrow night. Lesser
snowfall amounts will occur over the San Juan Mountains of
Southwestern Colorado, where my favorite place, Telluride, will pick
up 2-4 inches.
ON THIS DATE IN 1780: Spanish Admiral Solano was enroute from Havana
to Pensacola in October 1780 to capture the important port city.
The third major hurricane of the month swept north through the Gulf
of Mexico catching and scattered the fleet of 64 warships. The
hurricane became known as Solano's Hurricane.
Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com
ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com
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TODAY
Sunny and very warm for October. Becoming cloudy overnight with a
shower possible.
Afternoon High 85
WIND: SE 6-12
MONDAY
Rain and a few thunderstorms.
Morning Low 63 Afternoon High 75
WIND: SE 6-12
TUESDAY
Rain likely.
Morning Low 67 Afternoon High 69
WIND: NW 6-12
WEDNESDAY
Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
Morning Low 52 Afternoon High 65
WIND: SW 6-12
THURSDAY
Still unsettled with a few showers.
Morning Low 50 Afternoon High 67
WIND: SW 5-10
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