ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Saturday March 26, 2005
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GOOD AFTERNOON: Any time that it is this warm in Alabama in March, you know
you have the potential for trouble.
A LITTLE TALK ABOUT CAPE: Readings have soared into the lower 80s across
much of the area this afternoon under a mostly sunny sky. The airmass has
become quite unstable over the area, with CAPE (Convectively Available
Potential Energy) values above 2000 j/kg over Central Alabama. CAPE is what
thunderstorms eat for energy. The energy available today makes for strong
updrafts. The lid on the boiling pot in CIN, or convective inhibition.
This is the cap that you hear us refer to frequently. The CIN is what
rising air parcels must overcome on order to reach the level of free
convection, where they can rise unimpeded. A thunderstorm updraft is born.
Then many other factors determine what happens to that updraft. Will it be
tilted forward by winds that blow faster with height. Will those winds be
too strong and shear it apart? Will there be sufficient change in wind
direction with height to impart significant spin to the updraft, allowing a
supercell to form?
ROUND 1: A little mini-ridge of high pressure has built in over North and
Central Alabama, providing a bit of a cap, but it is not very strong. As a
warm front comes north during the afternoon hours, it will produce scattered
thunderstorms that will feed on all that CAPE over Alabama. Storms will
rapidly become severe this afternoon and this evening in the unstable air.
The main threats will be from large hail and damaging winds, but there could
be isolated tornadoes. This threat will continue through the overnight
hours as Alabama is in the warm sector of the low.
ROUND 2: A potent little surface low will be tracking across northern
Louisiana and into Central Mississippi during the overnight hours. This low
will provide excellent low level shear as it moves ENE. We will still be in
the warm sector of the low late tonight and Sunday morning. Severe
thunderstorms will develop across the area tonight and Sunday morning, with
the threat of damaging, long track tornadoes a real possibility, along with
large hail and damaging winds. The threat will finally end Sunday afternoon
as affront sweeps through the area.
HOLY WEEK/SEVERE WEATHER: The combination of religious activities and
severe weather is a recipe for potential disaster. Tonight is the Easter
Vigil for our Catholic friends, and worshippers will likely be out of
contact with warning information. Easter services will be in full swing
across the state tomorrow morning, which could be the height of severe
weather for us in Alabama. It is incumbent on church officials to review
their severe weather safety plans and post someone to monitor weather
conditions during their services, as well as to be ready to take immediate
action to move parishioners to safe areas on a moment's notice.
QUICK LOOK AHEAD: Monday will be mostly cloudy with a little left over
light rain on drizzle. Nice weather will move in for Tuesday and Wednesday.
The Gulf will open back up on Thursday, bringing another round of strong
storms Thursday night.
Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com
ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weathertalk: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/weathertalk.hrb
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TONIGHT
Thunderstorms developing. Some will be severe with the threat of tornadoes,
large hail and damaging winds.
Morning Low 66
WIND: SE 10-20
SUNDAY
Morning rain, storms give way to a little sun before another round of
severe weather later in day.
Morning Low 66 Afternoon High 73
WIND: S 10-20
MONDAY
Mostly cloudy with a few showers.
Morning Low 46 Afternoon High 61
WIND: NW 15-25
TUESDAY
Springtime perfection. Cool start, then lots of sun with a warm afternoon.
Morning Low 45 Afternoon High 75
WIND: W 5-10
WEDNESDAY
Another great Spring day. Breezy and warm with partly cloudy skies.
Morning Low 50 Afternoon High 77
WIND: S 10-20
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