ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Saturday November 7, 2009
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...Ida To Move Into Gulf...

Lots to talk about on this Saturday afternoon, including a late season
tropical storm, so let's get started…

IDA: Ida is plying the waters of the northwestern Caribbean on this
November Saturday. Ida has been getting better organized all morning
and Air Force recon just found that it is just below hurricane
intensity. It will likely become a hurricane later today or tonight.
It will pass between the Yucatan and Cuba on Sunday and into the
southern Gulf of Mexico Sunday night. As it moves northward, Ida will
encounter increasing wind shear and dry air from a big trough over the
western Gulf. This will change the storm from a tropical system (with
a warm core) to a powerful extratropical storm (cold core). The storm
will be near the mouth of the Mississippi River by Monday night and
near Mobile Bay late Monday night. Ida will not be a big problem for
coastal sections, but it will bring tropical storm force winds of
45-50 mph to the coast, heavy surf and coastal erosion. It will be
interesting to watch the transition and affects along the coast. Stay
tuned.

REST OF YOUR WEEKEND: Beautiful weather for the Alabama, Auburn and
UAB games today. Lots of sunshine with temperatures in the 67 to 70
degree range during the games. In fact, we are on the verge of a
Perfect Weather Warning for today. Tomorrow looks even a tad better,
so we will go ahead and pull the trigger on the PWW for Sunday, with
temperatures a few degrees warmer and still plenty of sunshine. We
start off in the lower to middle 40s tomorrow and peak in the middle
70s on the thermometer. Beautiful.

IDA'S AFFECTS: There is a second disturbance over the Bay of
Campeche right now. Moisture from it will be shunted northward and
start producing very heavy rain over Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday
night into Monday. That heavy rain will push into Alabama during the
day Monday. Winds will be on the increase as well, averaging 15-30
and occasionally gusting higher Monday and Monday night. Rain will be
likely Monday night across much of the state, with heavy rain
possible. Two to three inches of rain is likely across the middle of
the state, with some 4+ inch amounts over Southwest sections of the
state. High pressure will build in Wednesday, clearing our skies.

REST OF THE WEEK: Thursday and Friday look fine, but we will see
increasing clouds and a few showers as we head into the weekend. Not
seeing a washout for Saturday and Sunday by any stretch, but showers
will be around.

FORECAST FLASHBACK: On the afternoon of the 28th, I got to do the
afternoon forecast package for J.B. Here is a snippet from that
forecast: Watch for a hurricane to come out of the Caribbean,
threatening South Florida around the 11th. It will be interesting to
watch. The GFS model was picking up on something way back then. Not
bad!

WEATHERBRAINS: Our fine run of guests continues this week with famed
severe weather and wind damage expert Tim Marshall on Monday night.
Listen at www.WeatherBrains.com or subscribe at iTunes. It's free!

ON THE DATE IN 1837: Hawaii seemingly should have lots of
hurricanes. It lies in the middle of warm ocean waters. It is the
same latitude as hurricane-prone areas as the Caribbean Sea and the
Bay of Bengal. But the islands are usually protected in summer by
sprawling high pressure systems that deflect tropical storms away from
Hawaii. On this date, one of the most intense hurricanes ever to
strike Hawaii brought winds of 115 mph to Hilo. 730 people were
missing or killed. Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter.com @
wxhistorian.

Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://cfc.abc3340.com/abc3340/7day.cfm
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TONIGHT
Fair and cool.
Morning Low 44
WIND: SE 6-12

SUNDAY
Perfect! Sunny and warm. A few clouds return overnight.
Morning Low 48 Afternoon High 77
WIND: SE 6-12

MONDAY
Becoming cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain by afternoon. Windy
with rain and storms overnight.
Morning Low 54 Afternoon High 70
WIND: SE 15-30; gusty

TUESDAY
Breezy with a chance of morning showers and storms.
Morning Low 58 Afternoon High 68
WIND: NE 10-20

WEDNESDAY
Partly sunny.
Morning Low 48 Afternoon High 69
WIND: N 6-12

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