ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Sunday November 15, 2009
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...Nice Sunday Ahead...

The weather doesn't get much nicer than this in mid-November in Alabama. Highs today will be in the middle 70s, some ten degrees above normal. Expect plenty of sunshine with just some high clouds streaming across the area during the day.

NEW WORK WEEK: The models are starting to develop a little consistency about the forecast for the upcoming week. There has been good consistency in the concept that a big upper low would develop over the Southwest U.S. and move out into the Plains states early in the week. But these bowling ball upper lows are notoriously hard to predict, so there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast, primarily with how far east the system will move and how fast.

It now appears that Monday will be dry and mild. Tuesday will feature increasing clouds and a slight chance of showers over western sections as the low edges a little further eastward. More showers will be possible, mainly over western sections on Wednesday. But high pressure over the Appalachians will start to flex its muscles by Thursday in the form of a southeasterly flow over the state, and the shower activity will be pushed away temporarily. By Friday, the southeasterly flow will moisten the atmosphere and showers and storms will come back into the forecast. The tug of war will continue, with another trough producing more showers on Friday.

NEXT WEEKEND: A stronger disturbance to our west on Saturday will pull a warm front northward on Saturday, accompanied by showers and storms. Sunday will be windy with increasing shower and storm chances. I would not be surprised to see us have to deal with some severe weather possibilities in the Sunday/Monday time frame.

HOLIDAY WEEK/IRON BOWL: The moisture will not depart behind the Sunday/Monday storm system. This will set the stage for a bigger storm system to affect Alabama, perhaps on Thanksgiving Day. There are signs this front could stall and cause additional showers and storms on Friday. This is not good news for the Alabama/Auburn game. But I caution that this forecast is not a high confidence one, and there will almost certainly bee changces.

LEONIDS: The Leonids meteor shower will peak Monday night/early Tuesday morning across Alabama. Experts say that if cloud conditions permit, one might see 20-30 meteors per hour from vantage points in the U.S. Hopefully, the clouds will cooperate.

WEATHERBRAINS: It's the podcast that's all about weather. Spend an entertaining hour each week with some of the big hitters in weather. This week, it is WeatherData CEO Mike Smith, who has a new book called Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather. Follow WeatherBrains on Twitter @weatherbrains.

IN 1989: Things were quite a bit different. There was no Doppler radar in Alabama yet. An F4 tornado that struck Huntsville on this date was not preceded by a tornado warning. Conflicting storm spotter reports led to a delay in issuing a tornado warning. NWS communication problems didn't help either. Follow my weather history tweets @wxhistorian on Twitter.com.

Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://cfc.abc3340.com/abc3340/7day.cfm
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TODAY
Sunshine with passing high clouds.
Afternoon High 75
WIND: Var 5-10

MONDAY
Partly cloudy skies.
Morning Low 46 Afternoon High 75
WIND: SE 5-10

TUESDAY
Increasing clouds. Slight chance of a shower over western sections.
Morning Low 50 Afternoon High 69
WIND: SE 6-12

WEDNESDAY
Mostly cloudy and coolish. A slight chance of a shower over the west.
Morning Low 54 Afternoon High 63
WIND: E/SE 6-12

THURSDAY
Partly sunny.
Morning Low 47 Afternoon High 66
WIND: E/SE 5-10

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Tonight on ABC 33/40

1:30pm NASCAR
6:00pm AFV
7:00pm Extreme Makeover
8:00pm Desperate Housewives
9:00pm Brothers and Sisters
10:00pm ABC3340 News
10:35pm The Zone

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