ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Monday October 26, 2009
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...More Active Weather Ahead...

It looks like we will add to our rainfall surplus over the next week,
as well as moving up the rankings for all time October rainfall in
Birmingham. Plus, we can't rule out a couple of shots at severe
weather in the next five days. Let's break it down.

SYSTEM ONE: A tremendous amount of moisture over the western Gulf
and an approaching trough will conspire to spin up a low pressure
center later today that will slide up into Louisiana and up the
Mississippi River. This means increasing clouds for us. Rain and
storms will affect the area on Tuesday, with two inches or more
expected tomorrow. There may be a short window of time that we are in
the warm sector late Tuesday afternoon. With low instability and high
shear, there could be low topped convection that can produce damaging
winds or even tornadoes. We will have to watch it carefully.

SYSTEM TWO: Wednesday looks like a nice day, with partly cloudy
skies and warm temperatures. Another powerful upper level system and
surface low will be to our west by Thursday. This means increasing
clouds again, with a chance of showers and storms as a warm front
comes north over the area. The strong surface low will move northward
from Kansas to Minnesota by Friday morning. This will push a cold
front towards us here in Alabama. This means another chance of
showers and storms, mostly likely coming Friday afternoon and night.
The models have been all over the boards on the timing and intensity
of this system, so forecast uncertainty is high. Hopefully it will be
gone in time for high school football. The Magic City Classic looks
good as does the Saturday race at Talladega. Sunday's marquee race
looks good as well, weather wise.

SKY SHOW: You will see a beautiful conjunction of the Moon and
Jupiter tonight in the southern sky, if cloudiness does not block the
view. They made for a wonderfully bright pair last night. I hope you
caught them in case skies are not cooperative tonight.

WEATHERBRAINS: We are finalizing our plans for a big Amateur Radio
tribute show on February 1st. Tonight, it's a fond look back at one
of the best weather television shows ever: PBS's AM Weather from the
70s and 80s. Join the panel, Joan von Ahn, Carl Weiss, and NWA
President-elect Steve Zubrick for a trip down a meteorological memory
lane. Follow our tweets about the show: we are @weatherbrains at Twitter.com
.

ON THIS DATE IN 1998: Hurricane Mitch tied Hurricane Camille (1969)
as the fourth strongest Atlantic Hurricane of record when Air Force
Reconnaissance found a central pressure of 905 millibars, making it a
Category 5 hurricane. Of course, that all changed with the 2005
season, as Wilma, Rita and Katrina all posted lower central
pressures. Mitch would stay a Category 5 forty two hours. . The
central pressure of 905 millibars was also the lowest pressure ever
observed in an October hurricane in the Atlantic basin to that time.
Oh, wait. Wilma was an October hurricane. The maximum sustained winds
in Mitch reached 180 mph. Mitch would go on to kill over 11,000
people in Honduras and Nicaragua, making it the deadliest Atlantic
hurricane since 1780. Follow my weather history tweets
@wxhistorian.

Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://cfc.abc3340.com/abc3340/7day.cfm
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TODAY
Increasing clouds by afternoon with a slight chance of a shower. Rain
chances go up overnight.
Afternoon High 72
WIND: E/SE 6-12

TUESDAY
Breezy with rain/storms likely. Slight chance of severe weather
during late afternoon.
Morning Low 58 Afternoon High 68
WIND: SE 10-20

WEDNESDAY
Partly cloudy and mild.
Morning Low 53 Afternoon High 77
WIND: S 5-10

THURSDAY
Becoming cloudy. A chance of showers and storms.
Morning Low 59 Afternoon High 76
WIND: SE 6-16

FRIDAY
Windy with showers and storms again becoming likely.
Morning Low 61 Afternoon High 71
WIND: S 10-20

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