ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Monday October 12, 2009
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...Flooding Threat Returns...

Greetings from Red Bluff, California! As I settled into my seat on a
plane in Birmingham on Sunday morning, the flight attendant noticed
that I was looking at weather maps. We talked about the weather for a
few minutes. She was from Austin, and she said that she would never
complain about the rain again after experiencing the severe drought
they are enduring right now. I feel the same way. I can remember
wistfully looking at the weather maps for any sign of rain in the
summer of 2007, only to see promising storm systems evaporate as they
came toward Alabama. I resolved to be grateful for every drop of rain
that comes our way.

WET FORECAST: I do hope those rains don't come in megadoses like
they did a few weeks ago. Indications are that we could see a large
area of 3-5 inch amounts across the northern half of the state over
the next five days. Some spots could see more, of course and we will
have to monitor the potential for flooding. Let's delve into the
forecast…

FLASH FLOOD WATCH: A southwesterly upper flow continues over Alabama
and the Deep South today. This moist flow is picking up moisture both
from the Pacific and the Gulf. The low level flow will become
southeasterly today behind a warm front being driven northward as the
subtropical high moves further east. Disturbances in the flow will
result in batches of showers and storms. One to two inches of rain
will fall today across the area and flash flood watches are in effect
through late this afternoon.

TOMORROW AND BEYOND: We should get a little break tomorrow night
through much of Tuesday, but confidence in that forecast is low.
Another disturbance will bring a good chance o rain and storms Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Then, as a low pressure system strengthens and
moves north of us on Thursday, we will find ourselves in the
cyclone's warm sector and will see increasing showers and storms.
Some of those storms may be strong to severe Thursday night. Friday
will be blustery and colder. Drier weather will settle in for the
weekend.

TROPICS: Still nothing of any significance in the tropical Atlantic.
The remnants of Henri show no promise. The disturbance moving along
the northern coast of South America has little chance of developing.
The global models are not bullish on any developing tropical systems
over the next two weeks.

WEATHERBRAINS: Tonight, is our first annual rant show. It should be
crazy. Upcoming guests include: Bill Read, Chuck Doswell, Tim
Marshall, Gary England, Roger Hill and BBC Weather Presenter Hannah
Bayman. Follow our tweets about the show: we are @weatherbrains at Twitter.com
.

ON THIS DATE IN 1979: Typhoon Tip in the Northwest Pacific Ocean
achieved the dubious distinction of being the strongest tropical
cyclone ever measured on earth. It was measured to have a central
pressure of 870 mb and estimated surface sustained winds of 190 mph as
it swept through the Luzon Strait. Follow my weather history tweets
@wxhistorian.

Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://cfc.abc3340.com/abc3340/7day.cfm
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TODAY
Rain and storms likely. Heavy rain possible. Sun peeks through late
in day.
Afternoon High 72
WIND: NE 6-12

TUESDAY
Partly sunny. Chance of a daytime shower or storms. Rain and storms
likely overnight.
Morning Low 59 Afternoon High 76
WIND: NE/E 5-10

WEDNESDAY
Rain and storms likely.
Morning Low 61 Afternoon High 77
WIND: SE 6-12

THURSDAY
Breezy. Thunderstorms becoming likely. Some could be strong or
severe. Heavy rain possible.
Morning Low 61 Afternoon High 78
WIND: S/SW 8-18

FRIDAY
Blustery and colder with a little light rain.
Morning Low 53 Afternoon High 66
WIND: NW 8-18

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