ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Wednesday September 16, 2009
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===================================================================

...Keep The Umbrella Handy...

A BLANKET OF MOIST AIR: Surface dewpoints will remain generally in the
70 to 75 degree range across Alabama, about as high as they get as a
very moist airmass is parked over our state. The moist air is being
pulled northward by a stacked upper air and surface low west of here,
over Northeast Louisiana. This feature will simply drift around that
same region for the next days, meaning our weather won't change much
through Friday. We will continue to highlight occasional showers and
thunderstorms through Friday, with potential for heavy rain at times
with the heavier tropical downpours. While we are not expected
widespread flooding problems, a few flash flood warnings could be
required along the way. And, showers could come at just about any hour
of the day or night in this kind of air.

THE WEEKEND: Still nothing to bring in drier air, so we will have to
dodge
showers and a few thunderstorms over the weekend. The showers might
be slightly fewer in number as the old tropical low becomes broad and
diffuse, but no doubt it will rain at times both Saturday and Sunday.
Away from the showers, there should be intervals of sunshine, and
highs will be in the low to mid 80s. We will put out our first weather
forecast for the football games
tomorrow morning.

NEXT WEEK: Sure looks like the pattern is changing next week; most
global models develop a long wave upper trough over the eastern half
of the nation early in the week, which will drive a rather sharp cold
front down this way by Tuesday morning. Cooler and drier air will
follow the front on Wednesday, and it sure looks like we will be down
in the 50s by daybreak Thursday. Maybe even some upper 40s for the
colder spots across North Alabama.

FIVE YEARS AGO TODAY: The center of Hurricane Ivan moved on shore near
Gulf Shores around 300 AM on Thursday, September 16, 2004. Maximum
sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be near 130 MPH, with a
minimum pressure of 943 millibars. Hurricane Ivan will compare with
the worst hurricanes to ever to affect the Alabama Gulf Coastal Region
since 1900, including Frederic in September 1979, Opal in October
1995, and the September 1926 Hurricane. Hurricane Ivan moved inland
maintaining hurricane strength to near Uniontown (Perry County) around
11 AM. Ivan was downgraded to a Tropical Storm at 1 PM CDT as it was
approaching Centreville (Bibb County). Ivan then tracked across the
Birmingham Metropolitan Area between 4 and 8 PM. Ivan remained a
Tropical Storm until reaching northeast Alabama, where it weakened to
a Tropcial Depression around 10 PM.

Ivan produced estimated maximum winds of 60 to 80 mph generally
southwest of line from Prattville to Livingston. A few spots may have
reached 90 mph in this area. Most other locations across central
alabama had estimated maximum wind speeds of 50 to 60 mph, with a few
isolated spots reaching 75 mph. Tree and power line damage was
extensive.

James Spann
jspann@abc3340.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://cfc.abc3340.com/abc3340/7day.cfm
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TODAY
Periods of rain and a few thunderstorms.
Afternoon High 81
WIND: SE 6-12

THURSDAY
Occasional showers and storms.
Morning Low 69 Afternoon High 82
WIND: SE 6-12

FRIDAY
Mostly cloudy. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely.
Morning Low 69 Afternoon High 83
WIND: SE 6-12

SATURDAY
Mixed sun and clouds. Scattered showers and storms.
Morning Low 69 Afternoon High 84
WIND: S 6-12

SUNDAY
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Morning Low 70 Afternoon High 82
WIND: SW 7-14

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