ABC 33/40 E-Forecast
Morning Edition For Thursday August 6, 2009
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The dreaded 594 dekameter heat bubble it about to set up shop over the
Southeast U.S. That number refers to how high above the surface we
have to go to have our barometer drop to 500 millibars. Hotter air is
thicker, so when the 500 mb height gets up to around 5,940 meters
(around 19,500 feet), it's gonna be hot, hot, hot…
TRENDING TO DRIER/HOTTER: Actually, we have been pretty lucky with
rainfall and cooler than average temperatures lately, so a little hot
weather won't be a bad thing, as long as it doesn't wear out its
welcome. Many areas will see middle 90s through Sunday before the
ridge breaks down enough to allow for some cooler conditions and
scattered storms.
NEXT WEEK: The surface high will shift off the East Coast by Monday,
allowing for a return southerly flow to set up over Alabama. This
means scattered showers and storms will return to the forecast by
Monday and Tuesday. Expect fairly typical summertime fare for the
remainder of next week with highs near 90 and lows in the middle 70s.
TROPICAL FORECASTS DOWNGRADED: The experts out at Colorado State
University have lowered their forecast for the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane
season to ten named storms, four hurricanes (two of which will become
major hurricanes.) The increased wind shear from a developing El Nino
was cited as the cause. The new numbers were a downgrade from the 11,
5 and 2 on their last update.
TROPICS: The latest first hurricane since 1953 was in 1977, when
Hurricane Anita waited until August 29th to get going. I am confident
that Ana will not wait that long. We are getting into the heart of the
Cape Verde part of the hurricane season, and we are seeing the eastern
Atlantic moisten up now after weeks of dry air have covered this area.
You will see a string of tropical waves move off the African coast and
steam westward. Their eventual track will be steered by the Bermuda
high, which has been displaced to the east a bit, hopefully keeping
any storms away from the U.S. East Coast. The current disturbance in
the Central Atlantic has struggled with the dry air and doesn't pose
much of a threat to become a tropical depression. In the Pacific,
Hurricane Felicia could affect Hawaii by next Monday, but it should
weaken to a depression by then.
UPCOMING WEATHERBRAINS GUESTS: This week's guest is author Abby
Sallenger, talking about his book on the Last Island Hurricane of
1856. WE will record the show Monday night. After that is our
Hurricane Camille Anniversary Special on the 17th, Ivor van Heerden
will talk about Katrina on the 24th and Tom Skilling will be the guest
WeatherBrain on the 1st. We signed up Les Lemon yesterday for an
October visit and Mike Smith, the President of WeatherData will be on
in November. He will talk about why the warning system isn't broken,
and how to improve it in November. Subscribe for free on iTunes or go
to www.WeatherBrains.com where all the archives and a free player are
located. Get show info on Twitter.com @weatherbrains.
ON THIS DATE IN 1918: Record heat in the East. The reading of 106F at
Washington DC is their all time record high temperature. Cumberland MD
and Keedysville MD set their all time record high temperatures also
with 109F. Other all-time record high included Richmond VA (107F).
Philadelphia PA recorded their most uncomfortable day ever with a heat
index reading of 125 degrees.
Bill Murray
bill.murray@theweathercompany.com
ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://cfc.abc3340.com/abc3340/7day.cfm
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com
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TODAY
Mostly sunny and hot.
Afternoon High 93
WIND: NE 5-10
FRIDAY
Sunny and hot.
Morning Low 71 Afternoon High 94
WIND: W 6-12
SATURDAY
Mostly sunny and hot.
Morning Low 72 Afternoon High 95
WIND: SW 6-12
SUNDAY
Partly cloudy and hot. Tiny chance of an isolated storm.
Morning Low 73 Afternoon High 94
WIND: S 5-10
MONDAY
Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and storms return.
Morning Low 74 Afternoon High 92
WIND: S 6-12
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