ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Thursday June 11, 2009
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..Moisture Returning...

Summertime is a time of subtle weather features across the Deep
South. An upper level disturbance moving out of Oklahoma and Arkansas
triggered a complex of thunderstorms that moved into western Tennessee
overnight, where it promptly petered out. But it got re-energized
during the morning as it moved into Northwest Alabama. It also laid
down an outflow boundary across Northwest Alabama. This provided a
focus for storms to fire with the intense morning heating. In
addition, a high canopy of cirrus clouds from the thunderstorm complex
provided a temperature differential that helped to get the storms
firing. I checked the radar before heading to lunch at 11:45, and the
only thing on the radar was the storms over Northwest Alabama. By the
time I sat down to eat at 12:15, Walker and Winston Counties were
engulfed in storms.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TODAY: Today promises to look a lot like yesterday.
Another storm complex to the northwest of us will likely lay down
another outflow boundary The sun will do its work on the moist
airmass, and voila, more storms again today. The storms will pack
quite a punch, with wind and heavy rain and lightning. It's not out
of the question that some of them could become severe, particularly if
a big complex forms and we get a bow echo.

NOT MUCH CHANGE AHEAD: We continue in this same basic pattern for
the next few days, as the ridge of high pressure in the upper
atmosphere remains a little weak and the westerlies try to nibble
their way down into the Deep South. A long, snaky front will mark the
southern boundary of the westerlies, remaining to the north of
Alabama. Disturbances like the one yesterday and another one today
will trigger complexes of storms. Storms could be on the strong to
severe side again on Friday. In fact, t he Storm Prediction Center
thought enough of the possibility to go ahead and outlook the northern
third of the state for the potential for Friday severe weather on
their Day 3 outlook yesterday. That's pretty confident for that far
out, especially given the subtle features.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND: This same basic pattern, or lack
thereof, will continue into the weekend with the chance of showers and
storms continuing each day. The subtropical ridge will take over next
week, reducing our storm chances.

TROPICS: The tropics are quiet at this time. Eight years ago, the
first named storm of the season was wreaking havoc on a 12 day rampage
from the Houston area eastward along the Gulf Coast to the Mid-
Atlantic states.

ON THIS DATE IN 1993: The first federal Disaster Declaration is
issued for parts of Minnesota hard ht by the beginning stages of the
Great Midwest Flood of 1993. By August, parts of nine states are
declared disaster areas. The entire state of Iowa was declared a
disaster area. The flood was the worst this century in the U.S.,
lasting for months, rather than the usual weeks for floods. Damage
totaled almost $20 billion. More than 50,000 homes were damaged or
destroyed. More than 75 small towns were completely flooded.

Bill Murray
bill.murray@theweathercompany.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://cfc.abc3340.com/abc3340/7day.cfm
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TODAY
Partly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms.
Afternoon High 89
WIND: SW 6-12

FRIDAY
Warm and humid with thunderstorms developing.
Morning Low 71 Afternoon High 87
WIND: SW 7-14

SATURDAY
Mix of clouds and sun. A chance of storms again.
Morning Low 69 Afternoon High 87
WIND: SW 6-12

SUNDAY
Partly sunny. A chance of a few storms.
Morning Low 70 Afternoon High 88
WIND: SW 6-12

MONDAY
More sun than clouds. A risk of a thunderstorm.
Morning Low 69 Afternoon High 89
WIND: W 6-12

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