ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Monday February 9, 2009
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...Severe Weather Possible Here Wednesday...

Just a little over one year ago, we dealt with a deadly severe weather
event across a large part of the southern U.S., including Alabama.
The Super Tuesday Outbreak was he thirteenth deadliest in U.S.
history. It was followed by a pretty decent ice storm a week or so
later. Now, we have experienced a terrible ice storm, and it may be
followed by another significant severe weather event. The severe
weather episode could affect some of the same areas that were
devastated by the terrible ice storm.

ON THE WEATHER MAPS: We find a strong upper level disturbance
ejecting out of the big storm system over the Southwest this morning.
This disturbance will rotate north northeastward. A strong surface
low pressure system is forming in the lee of the Rocky Mountains. The
surface low will be in Montana by tomorrow morning. A line of strong
storms developed last night and continues moving east and northeast
this morning. It could produce isolated severe today from the Central
Plains into the Midwest, but limited moisture will be available to
fuel the storms. We will be dry today with a decent supply of
sunshine and highs again near 70F. The strong ridge of high pressure
to our southeast will block the approach of the front for the time
being. A few showers could reach Northwest Alabama late tonight, but
they will be isolated.

TUESDAY: The main upper level system will storm out of the
Southwest on Tuesday. This system will have more to work with in the
way of moisture. In addition, the wind fields will be substantial.
This will set the stage for severe weather from Texas to Illinois. If
moisture levels are high enough, there could be a significant threat
of tornadoes from Northeast Texas through eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Here in Alabama, it will be mild and windy with a few
showers over northwestern sections of the state.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND: By Wednesday morning, the intense surface
cyclone will be near Chicago. The powerful upper system will be
swinging into Arkansas. Winds at the jet stream level will be roaring
at over 115 mph from eastern Texas into Northwest Alabama. Dewpoints
should rise to near 60F, sufficient for severe weather. But when you
factor in those winds, the moderate instability might not be a big
limiting factor. Storms will arrive in western Alabama during the
day, and they are likely to become severe. It is a situation that
will need to be monitored carefully, as the details about the specific
threat are not clear yet. Stay tuned. Thursday should feature
clearing skies, with another system following on Friday with rain and
a few storms.

AUSTRALIAN WILDFIRES: Intense wildfires in southeastern Australia
have razed entire towns. The fires are the deadliest in the history of
the country have killed over 125 people. Victoria state was the
hardest hit. Over seven hundred homes have been destroyed.

ON THIS DATE IN 1994: One of the most devastating ice storms in U.S.
history affected Louisiana, Mississippi and Northwest Alabama. The
glazing began on the 9th and would last until midday on the 10th. As
much as three to six inches of ice accumulated on exposed objects. The
weight of the ice brought down power lines, trees and tree limbs.
Over 750,000 people in Mississippi and 100,000 in Louisiana were
without power on the 10th and 11th, some still without power a month
later. According to the National Weather Service, it was the worst
ice storm in Mississippi since a severe ice storm struck the state in
January 1951 and the worst in Louisiana since 1983.

Bill Murray
bill.murray@theweathercompany.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://cfc.abc3340.com/abc3340/7day.cfm
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TODAY
A good deal of sunshine. A nice southerly breeze. Chance of a shower
after midnight.
Afternoon High 72
WIND: S 8-16

TUESDAY
Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of showers.
Morning Low 54 Afternoon High 71
WIND: SW 10-18

WEDNESDAY
Showers and storms becoming likely. Some could be severe.
Morning Low 55 Afternoon High 68
WIND: SW 10-20

THURSDAY
Clearing skies. Briefly. Clouds return overnight.
Morning Low 44 Afternoon High 62
WIND: N/SE 5-10

FRIDAY
Rain and a chance of a thunderstorm.
Morning Low 44 Afternoon High 61
WIND: SE 7-14

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