ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Wednesday February 18, 2009
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...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...

While Moderate Risk severe weather outlook areas are not extremely
rare, they do get our attention. They indicate the potential for more
widespread and more significant severe weather. We have a moderate
risk today across Central and South Alabama, generally along and south
of I-20. The rest of the state is highlighted in a slight risk for
severe weather.

The sun is breaking through now over parts of North and Central
Alabama increasing the instability. Thunderstorms were developing
over North Alabama early this afternoon. A line of storms will move
through ahead of a cold front later today and tonight, ending from the
threat from the west.

SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE: A strong surface low is over northern
Illinois this morning. We find ourselves in an increasingly warm and
moist airmass because of it. A decent amount of instability is
expected to develop over West and South Central Alabama, particularly
if we get breaks in the clouds. Upper winds are very strong, giving
us the deep shear necessary for titled storms. Unlike last week's
event, the instability could be strong enough so as not to be
overwhelmed by the strong winds. But there is not a lot of change in
direction of the winds as you go up in the atmosphere. This will
reduce the threat of tornadoes, but any that do form could be strong.
There will also be a threat for damaging winds and large hail. In
fact, there could be some good sized hail.

Storms will increase early this afternoon and for a brief window, the
instability and wind shear could be in phase enough to produce an
enhanced threat of severe weather across Alabama.

Again, we will really be looking out if the sun pops through. If that
happens, storms will have more to work with in the way of instability,
and that area will have enhanced lift because of the position of the
strongest winds in the upper atmosphere. This increases the threat of
tornadoes. The storms will congeal into a powerful squall line
overnight and widespread wind damage is possible along this line,
along with a continued threat for tornadoes into Southwest Georgia
overnight.

Needless to say, please stay tuned to a reliable source for severe
weather information through early this evening, review your safety
plan and be ready to act in case warnings are issued for your area.

TREND TO COLDER: Skies should clear toward morning with temperatures
in the middle 30s. Tomorrow will feature breezy and colder conditions
with a good supply of sun. Highs will be in the upper 40s. Look for
a decent freeze Thursday night with lows in the middle 20s on average
Friday morning. Friday will be mostly sunny after that cold start.

SATURDAY: The models have been hinting at snow for the coming
weekend. Now they have latched on to the idea a little more strongly.
While we don
t want to take our eye of the ball for today, we have to mention the
possibility of some snow light snow for Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night as a strong cold front and upper disturbance could give
us something to talk about. Let's get through today's weather first.

STORM ALERT 2009: We are coming to Calhoun County this week; our
annual severe weather awareness tour will be held at the Oxford Civic
Center tomorrow at 7:00 p.m. The doors open at 5:00, and we suggest
you get there early for a good seat. There is no admission charge, and
you will see some great Alabama weather stories, have a chance to meet
our weather team, and also have a chance of winning some great prizes.
We hope to see you tomorrow night!

PRESIDENTS DAYS KNOWN FOR SNOWS: On the Presidents Day weekend in
1979, Washington's National Airport experienced its third greatest
snowstorm ever with 18.7 inches. Twenty four years later on that same
weekend in 2003, 16.2 inches fell at National on the Presidents Day
weekend, their 6th biggest snow. That same storm gave Baltimore it
biggest snow ever with 26.6 inches.

Bill Murray
bill.murray@theweathercompany.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://cfc.abc3340.com/abc3340/7day.cfm
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TONIGHT
Thunderstorms likely this afternoon. Some severe. A few evening
showers. Colder with some clearing.
Morning Low 38
WIND: SW/W 10-20

THURSDAY
Clearing skies, breezy, and colder.
Morning Low 38 Afternoon High 49
WIND: NW 10-20

FRIDAY
Mostly sunny with a cold morning.
Morning Low 26 Afternoon High 53
WIND: NW 5-10

SATURDAY
A chance of rain, mixing with or changing to light snow during the
afternoon and evening.
Morning Low 35 Afternoon High 44
WIND: SW/NW 7-14

SUNDAY
Sunny and cool.
Morning Low 27 Afternoon High 45
WIND: N 5-10

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