ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Sunday November 2, 2008
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===================================================================

...Another Great Fall Day...

Another refreshing morning across North and Central Alabama on this
first Sunday of November. Some lows across the area included: 33 at
Decatur, 35 at Tuscaloosa, 36 at Fort Payne and Anniston, 37 at Selma,
39 at Cullman and Montgomery and 40 at Birmingham, Calera and
Huntsville.

FOR YOUR SUNDAY: Bright blue skies and bright sunshine rule the day
across Alabama. Temperatures will warm again into the 70s this
afternoon. Tonight will be another clear, calm night with lows mostly
in the 40s. Cooler spots will register in the 30s.

THE WEEK AHEAD: That big upper low is over the northern Gulf, but it
is starved for moisture. It was producing some clouds over Southeast
Alabama this morning, but as the low moves east, they should follow it
into Georgia and the Carolinas. It will open up into a broad upper
trough. Meanwhile, a low will form over the Bahamas tomorrow and move
toward the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Some clouds could work their
way back into eastern sections of Alabama thanks to the upper low, but
precipitation will stay well to our east. We will stay dry through at
least Wednesday. Meanwhile, a big storm system over the west will
move slowly eastward. It will produce severe weather from Texas to
Iowa on Wednesday. The severe weather area will shift eastward as far
as Mississippi on Thursday. But it should weaken before it brings
showers and storms to Alabama late on Thursday and into Friday, and we
don't expect severe weather in Alabama. Showers and storms will exit
on Friday and set the stage for a dry and slightly cooler weekend.

DROUGHT UPDATE: Drought conditions have improved slightly in the
past week across Alabama. On this week's drought monitor, the
northeastern 10% of the state is in drought condition. This is a
slight improvement over a week ago. The biggest week over week
improvement came in the area considered to be abnormally dry. One
week ago, 79% of the state was abnormally dry. This week, it is down
to 62%. The week's rainfall will hopefully hold the drought at bay
until some better rainfall
chances arrive late in the following week.

TROPICS: The tropical Atlantic is all quiet at this time. Sea
surface temperatures are warm over the Caribbean and wind shear will
be decreasing this week, so that is the region we would look to for
tropical cyclone development. That is consistent with climatology.
We are in the inactive phase of the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation)
right now across the Atlantic. The active phase of the MJO is
strongly correlated with tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic.
It points to the chance for better development possibilities during
last two weeks of the month as the MJO becomes active.

ON THIS DATE IN 2001: Forecasters at the National Hurricane were
faced with a serious dilemma. Hurricane Michelle was strengthening
over the northwestern Caribbean. The official forecast carried the
storm over Cuba and out through the Bahamas, sparing South Florida.
But one computer model was an outlier, taking the category three
hurricane into South Florida. But NHC Director Max Mayfield was
nonplussed by the second guessers. He always said that the
specialists at the center are "born for their jobs." The forecast
turned out to be a good one, as Michelle stayed south of the Florida,
crossing Cuba south of Havana.

Bill Murray
bill.murray@theweathercompany.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://cfc.abc3340.com/abc3340/7day.cfm
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TONIGHT
Sunshine.
Overnight Low 44
WIND: NE 5-10

MONDAY
Mostly sunny.
Morning Low 48 Afternoon High 72
WIND: SE 5-10

TUESDAY
Partly to mostly sunny.
Morning Low 52 Afternoon High 73
WIND: SE 6-12

WEDNESDAY
Partly sunny.
Morning Low 55 Afternoon High 72
WIND: SW 6-12

THURSDAY
Showers and thunderstorms.
Morning Low 57 Afternoon High 75
WIND: SW 7-14

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Tonight on ABC 33/40:

2:00pm NASCAR
6:30pm AFV
7:00pm Extreme Makeover
8:00pm Desperate Housewives
9:00pm Brothers and Sisters
10:00pm ABC3340 News
10:35pm The Zone

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