ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Monday October 6, 2008
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...Fingers Crossed For Rain...

I know we have been harping on this, but we really need some rain.
Last month was one of the driest Septembers on record. Birmingham
actually still has a slender rainfall surplus, but only because of
three days of good rains from Fay back in late August. Other Alabama
stations have rainfall deficits over ten inches for the year.

ON THE WEATHER MAPS: In mid levels of the atmosphere, a big ridge of
high pressure is over Alabama and the Deep South. This ridge has been
responsible for our warm and dry conditions. The ridge will be shoved
eastward today, thanks to a trough over the Plains states that is
heading our way. Surface low pressure is deepening over the Oklahoma
and Texas Panhandles. Severe weather is possible today over the
southern Plains and tomorrow over the lower Mississippi Valley.

OUR FORECAST: Today will be a carbon copy of yesterday for the most
part across Central Alabama, with lots of sunshine and warm
temperatures in the 80s. The only subtle difference will be that the
winds have shifted to more of an easterly direction, thanks to a wedge
of high pressure. The only effect this will have is a slow moisture
return ahead of the next system. That system will begin to affect
Alabama on Tuesday, with increasing clouds late in the day. Showers
and storms will begin over western sections late Tuesday night,
overspreading the area during the predawn hours. Showers and storms
will be a good bet through the day on Wednesday, into Wednesday
evening, but they should be gone by Thursday morning. Rainfall
amounts are the big question. The meteorologists at the NWS in
Washington still think we will see 1.5-2 inches of rain with this
system. Color me skeptical. I think amounts are more likely to
average in the ¾ inch range, with isolated amounts over one inch.
Friday looks dry. Rain could return Saturday or Sunday.

TROPICS: In the tropics, low pressure over the southern Yucatan
Peninsula will make a brief appearance over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico in the Bay of Campeche today. With light to moderate wind
shear and some thunderstorm activity, there is a chance that is could
become a tropical depression before it moves into Mexico. But the
chance is slight. The GFS is still insisting that a tropical
depression will form over the eastern Atlantic this week. This is
getting less and less likely from a climatological standpoint as we
move deeper into October. The eastern Pacific is busy, and there are
signs that moisture from Tropical Storm Norbert might be drawn up into
Texas by the end of the week, perhaps spelling some flooding rains.

ON THIS DATE IN 2005: Parts of North Dakota had up to two feet of
snow on the ground from an early season snowstorm that the NWS in
Bismarck reported was the earliest major snowstorm on record there.
Parts of Interstate 94 were closed through Montana and North Dakota.
Ten National Guard soldiers with heavy equipment were out rescuing
stranded people. In Minot, a shelter also was set up at an old armory.
The Minot Air Force Base required only essential personnel to report
for duty.

Bill Murray
bill.murray@theweathercompany.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://cfc.abc3340.com/abc3340/7day.cfm
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TODAY
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon High 84
WIND: E 6-12

TUESDAY
Increasing clouds. Showers arrive overnight.
Morning Low 63 Afternoon High 83
WIND: SE 6-12

WEDNESDAY
Showers and storms likely.
Morning Low 67 Afternoon High 78
WIND: SW 7-14

THURSDAY
A few lingering showers.
Morning Low 63 Afternoon High 79
WIND: N 5-10

FRIDAY
Mostly sunny.
Morning Low 59 Afternoon High 81
WIND: SE 5-10

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6:00pm ABC3340 News
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10:00pm ABC3340 News
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