ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Thursday September 11, 2008
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Patton Creek 205-989-4020 Homewood 205-870-1100
Summit 205-967-5800 Crestline 205-871-0060
Downtown 205-252-5200 Tuscaloosa 205-344-4450
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...Weekend Looking Hot and Mostly Dry...

HERE IN ALABAMA: We will continue to mention the risk of scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms later today; most of them will
come in the 2:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. time frame, during the peak of the
daytime heating process. The chance of any one spot getting wet this
afternoon is about one in three. Showers will become fewer in number
tomorrow as high pressure aloft builds over Alabama, and at this time
the weekend looks generally rain-free with only isolated showers. And,
the weather heats over the weekend with highs in the 90 to 93 degree
range Saturday, about 5 to 8 degrees above average values for mid-
September.

The upper ridge is now expected to hold into the first two days of
next week, meaning any showers on Monday and Tuesday will be few and
far between, due to the warm air aloft making for a very stable
atmosphere. At this time it looks like the moisture from Hurricane Ike
will move through Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and into Illinois and
Indiana by early next week.

DANGEROUS HURRICANE HEADING FOR TEXAS: Ike is expected to become a
major hurricane this morning (category three on the Saffir-Simpson
scale) as it moves west/northwest across the open water of the
southern Gulf of Mexico. With warm SSTs (sea surface temperatures) and
light winds aloft, Ike is actually expected to reach category four
status within the next 24 hours, making this a potentially very
dangerous situation for those along the Texas coastal plain along and
north of where the eye makes landfall.

The latest track from NHC takes Ike into the Texas coast between
Matagorda Bay and Galveston during the early morning hours Saturday.
At least one million people will begin evacuating from this area this
morning; contra-flow is expected to be established along major
Interstate and U.S. highways that lead inland from the coast. A storm
surge to 18 feet is possible in Matagorda Bay, with a surge of up to
10 feet in Galveston Bay. We should also note that the models have
been trending slowly to the north, meaning the threat to the Galveston/
Houston area is increasing. The worst storm surge will be along and
north of where the eye makes landfall; that is where the hurricane
will feature intense onshore winds. South of the landfall point, winds
will be blowing offshore. A hurricane watch is in effect from Cameron,
Louisiana to Port Mansfield, Texas.

We should note that Ike will bring the risk of significant flooding to
much of East Texas, along with the possibility of a few isolated
tornadoes in the spiral bands wrapping around the system.

A SIGN OF THE TIMES: Some communities around the Great Lakes had first
first frost of the season yesterday morning. Some spots actually
touched the freezing mark; the low at Houghton Lake and Pellston was
32. Upper air winds won't allow any of that to invade Alabama for at
least the next five to seven days.

James Spann
jspann@abc3340.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://cfc.abc3340.com/abc3340/7day.cfm
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

=========================================================
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=========================================================

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TODAY
Partly sunny. A few scattered showers or storms this afternoon.
Afternoon High 88
WIND: SE 7-14

FRIDAY
Partly sunny. A passing afternoon shower or storm in a few spots.
Morning Low 73 Afternoon High 89
WIND: S 6-12

SATURDAY
Partly to mostly sunny and hot; only a small risk of a shower.
Morning Low 73 Afternoon High 92
WIND: S 6-12

SUNDAY
Hot with a good supply of sunshine. Any afternoon showers will be very
isolated.
Morning Low 72 Afternoon High 92
WIND: S 6-12

MONDAY
Partly sunny. Widely scattered showers.
Morning Low 72 Afternoon High 91
WIND: W 6-12

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