ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Sunday September 7, 2008
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...Watching Ike...

This week is the anniversary of Hurricane Frederic, which devastated
the Alabama coast back in 1979. Once again, we are watching a
potentially destructive hurricane poised to enter the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. It will be an interesting week in the weather office.

OUR WEATHER: On the weather maps this morning, we find high pressure
centered over the Blue Ridge Mountains of southwestern Virginia. The
Bermuda high remains strong across the Atlantic and is ridged back
into the Deep South. The weaterlies are over the northern tier of
states, where they should be, but a change in the upper pattern is
about to happen. That will affect the final player on our stage,
Hurricane Ike. Ike is moving through the southern Bahamas this morning.

WHAT ABOUT IKE? Ike is a major hurricane this morning. It is moving
westward now and will gradually describe a slow crurve around the
subtropical high pressure ridge. Shoved fairly far to the south, it
will likely move across much of the island nation of Cuba. As we have
seen before, that land interaction will disrupt the hurricane and
weaken it. It will spend the better part of Monday moving across
Cuba, and will consequently weaken to a Category One hurricane before
re-emerging into the southeastern Gulf of Tuesday morning. All this
is great news for the Florida Keys, which may avoid a direct hit from
a Category Four or Five Ike, and should only catch the periphery.
Still, lots of uncertainty in the forecast and there are in that cone,
so evacuations are very prudent and underway. A trough will develop
by Tuesday in the Plains and swing eastward. This trough should pull
Ike north and eventually northeastward toward Tampa or Cedar Key.
Again, lots of uncertainty in the track forecast. If this trough
fails to pick up the hurricane, Ike will wander into the North Central
Gulf and could threaten areas from Texas to Florida. In any case, it
should be a major hurricane wherever it lands.

FOR US: We should be dry and warm today and Monday with highs around
90. A stationary front across southern sections of Alabama and
Georgia will come back northward Monday night, potentially accompanied
by a few showers. Tuesday will see showers and storms spreading into
the area ahead of the approaching front and weakening trough. By
Wednesday, another passing shortwave will produce more showers and
storms, especially south and east of the front, which should be
aligned along I-59. Now Thursday will see us coming under the
influence of Ike, located south of the Alabama coast. We should see a
good slug of tropical moisture by then meaning a good chance of
showers and storm. The main event may wait until Saturday as the
hurricane merges with the front, coming on shore possible in the
Mobile to Destin region and giving much as Alabama a significant rain
and wind event into Sunday.

ON THIS DATE IN 1663: The topic of conversation at the meeting of the
Royal Society of London on this date was a Dr. John Dee, a member of
the Society a century before. It seems that Dr. Dee had kept
observations of weather conditions for over 7 years and by studying
them had acquired great skill at predicting the weather. The feat did
not earn him acclaim for meteorology. He was accused of being a
witch! Fortunately, the Society was not a superstitious lot in 1663,
and appointed Robert Hooke to record a history of the weather.

Bill Murray
bill.murray@theweathercompany.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://cfc.abc3340.com/abc3340/7day.cfm
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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=========================================================

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TODAY
Partly cloudy and warm.
Afternoon High 90
WIND: N 5-10

MONDAY
A good deal of sunshine. A chance of showers returns during the
overnight.
Morning Low 66 Afternoon High 91
WIND: SE 5-10

TUESDAY
A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Morning Low 69 Afternoon High 87
WIND: SW 6-12

WEDNESDAY
A good chance of shower and storms.
Morning Low 70 Afternoon High 85
WIND: NE/E 6-12

THURSDAY
Scattered showers and storms, mainly during the afternoon.
Morning Low 71 Afternoon High 87
WIND: SE 6-12

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