ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Thursday August 28, 2008
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...Fay Is Gone; Gustav Coming Onto the Scene...

THE ALABAMA STORY: Could it be that we are going to be affected by a
tropical storm and a hurricane only about one week apart? It is
entirely possible. Gustav is going to be a lot stronger than Fay, but
how are we going to beat Fay for the amount of rain. This afternoon
Gustav was dumping buckets of rain on Jamaica. Weather models have
been fairly consistent to bring Gustav between Cuba and the Florida
Keys and straight up the pike through the Central Gulf of Mexico for a
landfall somewhere on the North/Central Gulf of Mexico coast. That is
where uncertainty kicks in. The models have favored a landfall on the
central coast of Louisiana very early Tuesday morning. New Orleans is
quite nervous about this. However, we must mention that the cone of
concern flares out much further than that. Translation: people all the
way from near Corpus Christi, Texas around to NW Florida near Panama
City. The National Hurricane Center projects Gustav to be a Category 3
at landfall. If that happens, it will be a huge problem to the
landfall area.

Strangely enough, one of our most popular "regular weather models"
brings Gustav to the Louisiana coast but stalls it due to a high
pressure inland and slides Gustav westward offshore to South Texas.
That shows you what we have to deal with in the world of weather
models. The National Hurricane Center looks at everything and I tend
to think they are the best source.

HOW WILL ALABAMA BE AFFECTED: Assuming landfall on the Louisiana
coast, the main weather for the Alabama coast, including Gulf Shores
and Orange Beach, will be Sunday night and Monday and probably into
Tuesday when showers and thunderstorms will become numerous with some
locally heavy rain. Labor Day on the beach does not look good. If the
hurricane did make landfall as a Category 3 a little further east and
continued northward inland, there could be real weather problems over
a big part of Alabama including heavy rain, downed trees and power
lines and some flash flooding. Ivan was a good example.

TROPICAL WEATHER: Besides Gustav, we now have a new lady on the
stage. Her name is Hanna. She became a tropical storm this morning and
models are trying to turn her westward. It is too early to tell yet,
but the Atlantic Seaboard may need to watch her closely.

GLOBAL ROAMING: Would you believe that Fay is still causing some
problems? In the last 24 hours, that non-lady dumped 5.09 inches of
rain on Danville, Virginia, 2.51 at Roanoke and 3.47 on Raleigh. She
just will not give up, but she is about to just simply disappear. Cool
spots this morning included 29 in Yellowstone National Park and
Stanley, Idaho and 30 at St. Marks, Alaska. It was a hot 118 yesterday
in Death Valley. In the western USA, the Colorado River is 1,450 miles
long because of winding its way through many states.

MY TINY CORNER OF THE WORLD: Little Miss Molly is winning the IQ
race. This morning I offered her a treat just because it was her
birthday week. She had not been outside for a bathroom break or we had
not gone away and come home. That is usually when she gets a treat.
She was noticeably puzzled about getting a bonus treat and at first
would not take it. When she finally did, she held it in her mouth and
stared at me. One of these days I want to be as wise as she is. Life
goes on.

J. B. Elliott
jb.elliott@theweathercompany.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://cfc.abc3340.com/abc3340/7day.cfm
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

=========================================================
FOUR NIGHTS. FOUR SPEAKERS.
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=========================================================

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TONIGHT
Mostly clear.
Overnight Low 66
WIND: Light

FRIDAY
Mostly sunny. A warm afternoon.
Morning Low 66 Afternoon High 92
WIND: NE 5-10

SATURDAY
Partly sunny.
Morning Low 68 Afternoon High 92
WIND: E 5-10

SUNDAY
Partly sunny with widely scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms.
Morning Low 70 Afternoon High 91
WIND: E 6-12

MONDAY
Mostly cloudy with scattered, mostly afternoon, showers and
thunderstorms.
Morning Low 71 Afternoon High 89
WIND: E 7-14

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Tonight on ABC 33/40:

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6:30pm Wheel of Fortune
7:00pm Ugly Betty
8:00pm Grey's Anatomy
9:00pm Democratic National Convention
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