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Saturday, August 30, 2008

ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Saturday August 30, 2008
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...Gustav and Hanna...

Sounds like the characters in a movie love story. But it is our
tropical dynamic duo on this last weekend in August as the 2008 North
Atlantic Hurricane Season rolls on. Gustav could make history as it
moves into the southeastern Gulf late tonight and lurches toward
Louisiana on Monday.

RAPID INTENSIFICATION: At mid-afternoon yesterday, the central
pressure in Gustav was 980 millibars. Just after noon today, some 20
hours later, Air Force reconnaissance found a pressure of 935
millibars at the surface in a dropsonde observation. 55 mb in 20
hours. That 's wild. Not bad, but not near the record that 2005's
Wilma set. Wilma shattered all Atlantic records for deepening, with
6, 12 and 24 hour drops of 54, 88 and 97 millibars respectively for
those time periods. The former 12 hour deepening record was held by
Hurricane Allen in 1980, which saw a drop of 48 mb in 12 hours. The
true definition is 42 mb in 24 hours. Been there and done that, says
Gustav. Not a record, but still impressive.

GUSTAV: Gustav is an ominous hurricane. It will cross Cuba this
evening, which will knock it down a peg, but it could easily become a
Category Five hurricane over the southern Gulf where the Loop Current
is pumping high oceanic heat content water in from the Caribbean.
Gustav will be over that much of the day on Sunday. It is not out of
the question that it will become one of the ten strongest Atlantic
hurricanes on record. Now, it is expected to weaken a bit as it moves
toward the Louisiana coast, but it still will be a formidable Category
Four or at least strong Category Three hurricane when it makes
landfall there Monday evening. It should be far stronger than 1992's
Hurricane Andrew, which weakened rapidly in the hours before
landfall. It will rival or surpass Betsy, which made landfall near
Grand Isle in September 1965. Several levee breaches flooded parts of
the city of New Orleans.

HANNA/IKE: The second named storm out there for now is playing a
minor role, but that could change as the system northeast of the
Bahamas moves toward the southwest. It could move into the Gulf, it
could threaten South Florida and it could head north toward
Jacksonville, the Carolinas or Georgia. It could be a formidable
hurricane by that time. In the far eastern Atlantic, a developing
disturbance could well become Tropical Storm Ike in the next 24
hours. The system, near the Cape Verde Islands, it expected to move
northwest to a point 1000 miles west of Jacksonville by Thursday.

OH YEAH: Our weather. Tomorrow should be partly cloudy. It will be
a tad cooler and we come into the easterly circulation around Gustav.
Showers and storms will likely develop along an outer feeder band that
will rotate northward through the state, but coverage will be
relatively small. More of the same for Monday, with the heavy weather
staying south and southwest of us. Tuesday will see more widespread
storms over western and southwestern sections of Central Alabama.
There could conceivably be a tornado threat over western sections
Tuesday. By Wednesday, Gustav should be far enough west to allow us
to return to fairly typical summertime conditions. Those will
continue through Thursday. Our weekend looks dry and warm as we stay
under the sinking air from Hurricane Hanna to the east of Alabama.

WHAT'S A NICE GIRL LIKE YOU DOING AS A HURRICANE? Hurricane Carol
devastated Long Island and southern New England on this date in 1954.
The Weather Bureau received severe criticism about the name of the
storm. Editorials railed that it was not appropriate to give a nice
name like Carol to a destructive hurricane. Some people even said
that the name Carol gave the impression that the storm would not be
dangerous.

Bill Murray
bill.murray@theweathercompany.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://cfc.abc3340.com/abc3340/7day.cfm
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TONIGHT
Mostly sunny and hot. Widely scattered afternoon storm possible.
Overnight Low 67
WIND: E 5-10

SUNDAY
Partly cloudy. Scattered storms develop, most likely over
southwestern sections.
Morning Low 72 Afternoon High 91
WIND: E 6-12

MONDAY
Partial sunshine with a few cloudy periods. A chance of showers and
storms, particularly over western sections.
Morning Low 73 Afternoon High 86
WIND: E 7-14

TUESDAY
Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and storms.
Morning Low 73 Afternoon High 85
WIND: E 7-14

WEDNESDAY
Partly sunny. Scattered showers and storms.
Morning Low 69 Afternoon High 84
WIND: E 5-10

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10:00pm ABC 33/40 News
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