ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Saturday August 23, 2008
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...Hey Fay...

Four U.S. landfalls from a tropical cyclone. I am slowly going back
through the North Atlantic hurricane season records to see if we have
ever had anything like it. It doesn't look like we will see a fifth,
now that the center has edged a little further inland over the Florida
Panhandle. But with this storm, you never can tell.

FAY UPDATE: Fay did move inland early this morning southwest of
Tallahassee. It is wobbling across the Florida Panhandle. By tomorrow
morning it should be over southern Mississippi. It will loop around
over southern Mississippi and Southeast Louisiana before starting back
northeast on Tuesday. It should move slowly across Central Alabama
Tuesday and Tuesday night and be in eastern Tennessee by Wednesday
morning.

FAY AND ALABAMA: A nice outer band rotated up through Central Alabama
this morning, but rainfall amounts were light. Through the morning
hours, the rain shield filled in nicely across much of the state. The
heaviest rain was still to the south from about Montgomery south and
east. The National Weather Service maintains a flash flood watch for
areas south of a line from Livingston to Centreville to Lafayette.
Three to six inches of rain is possible over South Central Alabama.
Southeast Alabama could see tornadoes today, and much of South Alabama
tomorrow. They would be more likely if we weren't under an extensive
cloud shield and could get some sunshine to percolate storms.
Tropical storm force winds will be felt along the immediate coast with
gusts to tropical storm force over South Alabama as the center moves
south of the state tonight.

WILD QPF: But potential flooding is the big story. As the storm
meanders over the Southland during the next five days, rains could
become a huge problem. Five day quantitative precipitation forecasts
from Washington have been increased even further, now calling for at
least seven inches over 90 percent of the state (only Tennessee Valley
escapes.) That same forecast this morning is calling for 7-12 inches
in the I-20 corridor through Thursday morning. That sounds high, but
nothing is off the board with a slow moving, decaying tropical system.

THE FORECAST: Periods of rain through Sunday. It will be breezy, with
east and southeast winds at 15-25 mph. A wind advisory is in effect.
More waves of rain and storms on Monday and
Tuesday. Areas that find themselves under a heavy rain band could
pick up an inch of rain rather quickly. The northeastern semicircle
of a system (where we will be) is a favored area for tornadoes with
such systems, but it doesn't look like too much of a problem for us
right now. By Wednesday, the showers and storms should become more
scattered as we wave goodbye to Fay.

REST OF THE TROPICS: We could see a tropical depression form in the
next three days over the Caribbean.

ON THIS DATE IN 1963: Project Stormfury was armed and ready as
Hurricane Beulah moved across the Atlantic Ocean north of Puerto
Rico. An armada of planes carried out the seeding and monitored the
results of the experiment. On the 23rd, Beulah did not really meet
the criteria for seeding. On the following day, the storm met the
criteria, which included having a well-formed eyewall and the seeding
appeared to be successful as the eyewall disintegrated. No other
hurricanes would be seeded until 1969 because of a lack of good targets.

Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://cfc.abc3340.com/abc3340/7day.cfm
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TONIGHT
Breezy with rain likely.
Overnight Low 73
WIND: E/NE 15-25

SUNDAY
Continued breezy with periods of rain.
Morning Low 71 Afternoon High 81
WIND: E/SE 10-20

MONDAY
Periods of rain and a few thunderstorms.
Morning Low 71 Afternoon High 83
WIND: SE 8-16

TUESDAY
Rain and storms likely again.
Morning Low 70 Afternoon High 84
WIND: SE 7-14

WEDNESDAY
Partly sunny. Showers becoming widely scattered.
Morning Low 70 Afternoon High 87
WIND: NW 6-12

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