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Saturday, August 16, 2008

ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Saturday August 16, 2008
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...Showers Today, Fay Later...

I love getting to change my forecast completely between the time that
I go to bed and the time that I get up the next morning. But when
that forecast includes the possibility of more rain, I will take it
(as in this morning.) When it includes the possibility of a dangerous
hurricane, I would rather leave it.

A WETTER FORECAST FOR TODAY: That persistent trough continues this
morning over the eastern United States. An extension of the trough
edges down into Alabama and the Deep South. A disturbance riding down
along the trough is producing widespread light to moderate showers
over northern Mississippi. This spells a wetter day across the
northern third of Alabama as that disturbance moves eastward. We'll
take it. There is a warm frontal boundary extending from Central
Louisiana through southern Mississippi and Alabama. The passing of
this last is a series of disturbances should keep the front to our
south. This means the better rain chances will shift to South Alabama
for the next couple of days, giving us sunshine and seasonably warm
temperatures.

FORECASTING FAY: Our tropical storm is crossing the island of
Hispaniola. It has a very large circulation, so it is not being as
affected by the mountains there as it would have been if it had a
tighter circulation. It is exiting the western coast of Haiti and
will have about 18 hours over the toasty waters of the Windward
Passage before reaching Cuba. Now, the presence of land, and
mountainous land at that, will keep Fay in check to a degree, but it
is still expected to slowly strengthen and should be a hurricane by
late Sunday night as it traverses Cuba. It should emerge from off
the north coast of Cuba by late Monday night and will be in the
southeastern Gulf. The forecast gets hairy from there. It could move
northward just off the western coast of Florida, bringing hurricane
conditions to the length of the Peninsula. If it takes a little
westward track, it would have the opportunity to strengthen much more
and could make landfall as far west as Mobile, as presented by the
NOGAPS model. The overnight models were in fairly good agreement with
a track that hugs the west coast of Florida and swings north-eastward
around Cedar Key. Needless to say, it will be interesting.

OUR WEEK AHEAD: The front will remain active to our south, anchored
in place by high pressure to the north of Alabama. By Wednesday, it
will wash out as moisture surges back northward over Alabama thanks to
an upper low to our northwest and Fay pushing into southern Georgia.
We will see rain return to North and Central Alabama by then. The
best rains should be east of us over Georgia, unless Fay takes a more
westerly track.

ON THIS DATE IN 1969: Residents along the Gulf Coast were nervously
monitoring reports on dangerous Hurricane Camille in the Gulf of
Mexico. National Hurricane Center Director Robert Simpson was even
more nervous, because he did not have reconnaissance planes at his
disposal. The Navy had all of them in Puerto Rico flying missions
into Hurricane Debbie for Project Stormfury, the hurricane
modification project. Simpson knew the storm was strengthening. He
called on the Air Force to fly an Air Weather Service plane out of
Illinois into Camille. Early on Saturday evening, August 16th, an Air
Force C-130 plane investigating Hurricane Camille in the Gulf of
Mexico found an unbelievably low central pressure of 905 millibars.
Sustained winds were 160 mph. This information allowed forecasters to
warn residents along the coast that Camille would cause damage of
unprecedented proportions.

Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://cfc.abc3340.com/abc3340/7day.cfm
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

=========================================================
CHURCH. IT'S NOT A BUILDING

It's people. A family of people who are far from perfect, who
don't pretend there are no disappointments in life. But who
know where to turn in those disappointments and where hope
is found.

This Sunday, some will gather at Hunter Street Baptist Church
in Hoover. Will you join us?

Visit http://www.hunterstreet.org
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TONIGHT
A good chance of showers north of I-20. Otherwise, partly sunny with
a chance of a shower or storm.
Overnight Low 66
WIND: NE 5-10

SUNDAY
Mostly sunny.
Morning Low 64 Afternoon High 88
WIND: NE 4-8

MONDAY
A good bit of sunshine.
Morning Low 67 Afternoon High 90
WIND: SE 5-10

TUESDAY
Partly sunny with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
Morning Low 68 Afternoon High 91
WIND: SW 6-12

WEDNESDAY
Partly sunny. Scattered showers and storms developing.
Morning Low 71 Afternoon High 87
WIND: NE 6-14

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Tonight on ABC 33/40:

6:00pm ABC3340 News
6:30pm Wheel of Fortune
7:00pm Legally Blonde 2
9:00pm Eli Stone
10:00pm ABC 33/40 News
10:35pm Law and Order, SVU

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