ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Saturday August 16, 2008
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...Fickle Fay...

As is so often the case this time of year, a great deal
of our attention is turned upon the tropics. We are a month away from
the peak of the tropical season, and it looks like the next several
weeks will be really busy in this area.

FICKLE FAY: The disturbance that we have been tracking
for a week as it moved across the Atlantic became got double promoted
on Friday from tropical wave to tropical storm right off the bat. Fay
has taken a more southerly course that predicted by many of the
models, which has carried the system across the islands of the Greater
Antilles (Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and now across Cuba.) This is good
news for South Florida. Fay would have been a much stronger system if
it had taken the northerly track through the Bahamas (think 1935 Labor
Day storm.) Fay spent most of the night crossing Hispaniola
(Dominican Republic and Haiti) and will move through the Windward
Passage this afternoon and tonight. It will spend much of Sunday into
Monday morning traversing Cuba. Here the forecast gets a little
fuzzy. Fay is expected to turn northward into a weakness in the high
pressure ridge that will be over the eastern Gulf. If that turn
materializes earlier than later, it could go up the gut of the Florida
Peninsula (best case, weakest storm.) A little later turn could keep
it off the west coast of Florida, and while strengthening will be
somewhat limited, it could still be a category two hurricane by the
time it makes it to the Panhandle south of Tallahassee Wednesday
evening. There are other possibilities that include locations as far
west as the Louisiana/Mississippi coast. No one wants to think about
that, but no one is off the hook for now.

OUR WEATHER: Fay could play a role in our weather as we
head into next week. If she behaves and follows the NHC official
track, the main rains will stay to the east of Alabama. There is a
good chance that the horribly drought stricken areas of northern
Georgia could benefit tremendously from this system. Now if a little
more westerly track happens, that could bring heavy rain to Alabama.

Today, we have the remnant of a northwesterly flow over
Central Alabama. A shortwave trough is pushing a subtle front through
the area, accompanied by cloudiness and a few showers. Some deeper
moisture will fire more widespread showers and storms over southern
sections this afternoon, but clouds should thin over northern and
North Central sections by afternoon. Northern and Central sections of
the state should remain sunny on Sunday. By Monday, the front will be
in the northern Gulf, keeping us dry, and we will be eyeballing our
tropical storm over Cuba.

By then, the steering levels, an upper low will be to our
northwest. The resulting southerly flow will draw Fay northward. We
may find ourselves in the sinking air surrounding the tropical system
by Tuesday, or we could be in the moist southerly flow on the eastern
side of the upper low. Everything depends on the path of Fay.

ON THIS DATE IN 1995: Residents of the Southeast held
their breath as Tropical Storm Beryl made landfall on the Florida
coast near Panama City. The area had experienced some of its worst
flooding ever a month earlier as a result of Tropical Storm Alberto.
Fortunately, the storm was moving much more quickly than Alberto, so
no major flooding from rainfall occurred. Some coastal flooding was
reported from Apalachicola to Cedar Key. In addition, 23 tornadoes
were caused by the remnants of Beryl in South Carolina.

Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://cfc.abc3340.com/abc3340/7day.cfm
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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CHURCH. IT'S NOT A BUILDING

It's people. Dads, moms, babies, teens and 'tweens, singles,
grandpas and grandmas-all ages and types of people learning
to trust and depend on God.

This Sunday, some will gather at Hunter Street Baptist Church
in Hoover. Will you join us?

Visit http://www.hunterstreet.org
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TODAY
Partly sunny. A slight chance of a shower or storm.
Afternoon High 88
WIND: NE 5-10

SUNDAY
Mostly sunny.
Morning Low 64 Afternoon High 88
WIND: NE 4-8

MONDAY
More sun than clouds. A warmer afternoon.
Morning Low 67 Afternoon High 90
WIND: SE 5-10

TUESDAY
Partly sunny with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
Morning Low 68 Afternoon High 91
WIND: SW 6-12

WEDNESDAY
Partly sunny. Scattered showers and storms developing.
Morning Low 70 Afternoon High 89
WIND: NE 6-14

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Tonight on ABC 33/40

6:00pm ABC3340 News
6:30pm Wheel of Fortune
7:00pm Legally Blonde 2
9:00pm Eli Stone
10:00pm ABC 33/40 News
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