ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Saturday March 1, 2008
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...Welcome To March...

February is in the books. It certainly will be one for
the books, with a record number of tornadoes in Alabama and one of the
largest outbreaks in U.S. history. It was as high as 75F in
Birmingham on the 5th, and the mercury dropped to 21F on Valentines
Day, for the coldest reading in the month. It has been as warm as 83F
in February, back in 1996. It has been as cold as -10F, back in
February 13, 1899, the coldest reading ever observed in the Magic
City. The average high was 60.8F, the average low 37.7. These
readings are about 2.5 degrees below normal. The mercury dropped to
freezing or lower on 9 mornings, which is less than the average of
11.5 times in February. 4.66 inches of rain fell during the month,
which is 0.45 inches above normal. This comes off the hees of
January, which was about an inch below normal, so we are still a
little behind for the year.

SPRINGLIKE GOOD: It has beautiful Saturday across
Central Alabama. The morning dawned cloudy and foggy, with some dense
fog in some areas, especially over North Central Alabama, where skies
cleared early after overnight rainfall. Visibilities were down to ¼
mile or less in spots. Clouds began to break by mid-morning and the
warm March sun has sent the mercury into the middle and upper 60s. A
few spots will make 70F. It will be clear and calm overnight with a
little fog toward morning. Sunday will be a textbook spring day, with
lots of sunshine, a few clouds, an increasing southeast wind and warm
readings in the 70s. That's spiring's good side.

SPRINGLIKE BAD: But spring's bad side will not be far
behind, with thunderstorms arriving on Monday. By then, a low will be
forming over the Arklatex. This low will track east northeastward,
making it to near the border of Alabama/Mississippi and Tennessee by
midnight. Storms will invade Alabama late Monday night, and for the
time being it looks like the main threat will be damaging winds from
a strong squall line. There could be isolated tornadoes, though. All
of Alabama seems to be in the threat area based on this track. The
timing (late night) is in our favor. Much colder air will flow in on
the backside of the system and it will be raw on Tuesday with strong
winds and a likely mix of light rain and snow showers. But the
morning run of the GFS is less excited about wraparound moisture and
lessens the chance of snow showers as the upper low tracks further
north. This scenario would support a greater threat of severe weather
and a lessened winter weather threat. Look for a midweek warmup,
followed by another chill down for the end of the week. We will have
to wait and see. The new GFS also takes the mid-week system off the
board, pushing it into the Gulf. Again, we will wait and see.

ON THIS DATE IN 1952: In the morning, William Eads of
England, Arkansas was admonishing his family to finish the building of
a storm cellar project that had been underway for weeks. Just after 5
PM, as the finishing touches were being put on the storm cellar, it
was put to good use by the family as an F4 tornado devastated the
town. This would be Arkansas' most deadly tornado outbreak ever as
112 people died. At least six major tornadoes occurred across the
state on this date. Hardest hit was Judsonia, Arkansas, where thirty
people died. Another twenty nine died in Cotton Plant, Arkansas.

Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com

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TONIGHT
Clear and calm overnight.
Overnight Low 41
WIND: N 5-10

SUNDAY
Partly sunny breezy and warmer. Maybe an overnight storm western
sections?
Morning Low 46 Afternoon High 74
WIND: SE 10-18

MONDAY
Windy and mild with showers and storms, mainly late afternoon into
overnight. Some may be severe.
Morning Low 54 Afternoon High 74
WIND: SW 15-30

TUESDAY
Breezy and colder. Chance of rain or snow showers.
Morning Low 34 Afternoon High 42
WIND: NW 10-20

WEDNESDAY
Mostly sunny and warmer.
Morning Low 32 Afternoon High 59
WIND: NE 5-10

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