ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Saturday January 12, 2008
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...Interesting Week Ahead...

For the first time in many moons, I am able to write that we have a
rainfall SURPLUS for the year. We started out behind the curve last
year and things only got worse. And if you removed large rainfall
amounts from tropical systems or unusual heavy rainfall events, some
of the other past years would have been even drier. The good news is
that Thursday's widespread rainfall helped a little, and we have a
couple of additional good rainfall events in our forecast future. We
might even a have a chance for a little wintry precipitation.

REST OF YOUR WEEKEND: Enjoying a nice, fairly mild Saturday
afternoon across Alabama. Skies are partly cloudy and temperature are
heading toward highs right around 60 degrees. Clouds will be on the
increase this evening and though the overnight as a fairly potent
little upper level disturbance swings our way. There could be a
sprinkle during the overnight hours into the early morning as this
system approaches, but it is moisture starved. On Sunday, skies will
be partly cloudy with a fresh northwest breeze. Highs will be in the
50s. Look for clear and calm conditions Sunday night with widespread
lows in the 20s.

MIDWEEK SYSTEM: On Monday and Tuesday, our weather will be
mainly influence by a broad trough of low pressure over the Tennessee
and Ohio Valley, resulting in cool but dry conditions. There could be
patchy cloudiness as a couple of spokes of energy rotate through the
trough. By Tuesday night, high pressure should be centered over North
Alabama and a low will be forming in the western Gulf. The track of
any Gulf low like this is critical for snow fans. Too far south, and
the moisture stay well to our south. Too far north and we are too
warm for snow. The last couple of runs of the main forecasting model
push the storm track further south. This would keep us dry and
require a major change in my forecast for Wednesday as the system will
be later and too far south for us to get rain or snow. Colder air is
pulled southward into Alabama as this system exits to the northeast
and we go well below freezing Thursday night.

WEEKEND SYSTEM: We stay in the 30s on Friday and there could
be a passing snow flurry across the Tennessee Valley. We get quite
cold Friday night, with lows in the lower 20s. The models have been
promoting the idea of a second Gulf low on Friday, but that concept is
gone off of the morning run of the GFS. Will it stay that way? Only
time will tell. Suffice to say there is a lot of uncertainty in the
forecast for the week ahead.

ON THIS DATE IN 1997: An amazing lake effect snow event
off on Lake Ontario brought 86 inches of snow in 48 hours to Montague
NY, a sparsely populated town northeast of Syracuse. The town is
located atop the Tug Hill Plateau and is notorious for heavy lake
effect snows off on Lake Ontario. Seventy inches of snow fell in less
than 24 hours. Seventy five inches of snow was on the ground at one
point. The snow fell for an unusually long time. 250 inches of snow
had already fallen during the season, which was just forty inches shy
of the average for a whole season.

Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com

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TONIGHT
Partly sunny. Clouds increase at night.
Overnight Low 32
WIND: NE 5-10

SUNDAY
Partly sunny, breezy and cooler.
Morning Low 36 Afternoon High 56
WIND: NW 10-16

MONDAY
Partly sunny.
Morning Low 26 Afternoon High 50
WIND: N 6-12

TUESDAY
More sun than clouds. A cold early morning.
Morning Low 25 Afternoon High 47
WIND: NE 5-10

WEDNESDAY
Becoming cloudy. A little light rain possible overnight.
Morning Low 29 Afternoon High 49
WIND: SE 5-10

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