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Monday, December 10, 2007

ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Tuesday December 11, 2007
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...December Heat Wave Continues Today...

A RARE DECEMBER DAY: For statistics buffs, here is something pretty
interesting. Yesterday's high in Birmingham was 79 degrees, and that
puts us in rare territory. The old record for December 10 was broken
by plenty (73 set in 1972). But looking back at high temperatures for
every day in the month of December since 1895 (over 3,400 days), there
have only been 9 days on which the temperature reached 79 or warmer,
for a probability of 0.25%. Bottom line… it doesn't get this warm in
December very often around here.

Other record highs across Alabama yesterday included 82 in Montgomery,
81 in Pinson, 80 in Tuscaloosa, 79 in Anniston, 77 in Muscle Shoals,
and 76 in Huntsville. Highs reported by our SKYCAM network and team of
Skywatchers included 82 in Demopolis, 81 in Cuba (Sumter County), 79
in Jemison, 77 in Trussville, and 76 in Hayden, and 75 in Gadsdsen.
The average high for this time of the year is 57, so some spots were
over 20 degrees above normal yesterday.

MORE RECORDS? The weather won't change much today and tomorrow; high
in the mid to upper 70s for most spots with a mix of sun and clouds
after morning fog. Today's record high for Birmingham is 76 set in
1931, and tomorrow's record is 78 from 1971. Both of those will be in
danger as our December heat wave rolls
along.

CRIPPLING ICE STORM NOT FAR AWAY: Much of the nation's heartland is on
ice this morning… all the way from West Texas through Oklahoma and
into Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois. At the time I was writing
this, over half a million people had no power, and many airport were
struggling to remain open. Temperatures will slowly warm over this
region today, but it will take a few days for all of the ice to melt.
The leading edge of the cold air was close to the northwest corner of
Alabama, but it won't move much today since it is parallel to the
upper air winds.

NEXT RAIN: The big storm will finally lift out of the Southwest U.S.
tomorrow and weaken. It will drag a cold front into Alabama late
Thursday, and we will forecast a good chance of showers Thursday
afternoon and Thursday night. Looks like rain with that event will be
in the quarter-inch range; that won't make a scratch in the big rain
deficit we have for the year (23.79" in Birmingham as of today).

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Lots of computer model inconsistency here, but
some runs have hinted at a low forming in the Gulf of Mexico Saturday,
strengthening as it lifts northeast. If this happens to be correct,
that would suggest rain Saturday afternoon, with some potential for a
change to snow before ending Sunday night. Sure sounds far fetched
with the warm weather of late, but remember, it is brutally cold not
that far away. We will play it conservative now and watch model runs
in coming days. With this kind of pattern, the weather certainly isn't
boring!

James Spann
jspann@abc3340.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

=========================================================
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TODAY
Morning clouds and fog. Becoming partly sunny with another warm
afternoon.
Afternoon High 78
WIND: S 7-14

WEDNESDAY
Warm again with a mix of sun and clouds.
Morning Low 58 Afternoon High 77
WIND: SW 7-14

THURSDAY
Mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers Thursday afternoon and
Thursday night.
Morning Low 59 Afternoon High 71
WIND: NW 7-14

FRIDAY
Mostly cloudy and sharply colder.
Morning Low 41 Afternoon High 52
WIND: N 7-14

SATURDAY
Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain.
Morning Low 37 Afternoon High 48
WIND: E 7-14

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Tonight on ABC 33/40:

7:00pm Shrek The Halls
7:30pm Winnie The Pooh And
Christmas Too
8:00pm According To Jim
8:30pm According To Jim
9:00pm Boston Legal
10:00pm ABC 33/40 News

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