ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Wednesday December 26, 2007
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...Bust A Sign of Changes To Come?...

A very nice person wrote me yesterday morning and commented about how
difficult it was to forecast winter weather. An obvious reference to
how bad my busted forecast was yesterday. We had been tracking a
strong disturbance as it moved out of the Rockies and headed our way.
On Monday, our most important forecasting model started to poo-poo the
system, saying that it would have little to work with in the way of
moisture while it was over Alabama. Well, this has been the general
trend in reality since the Spring. Every storm system that has been
hyped and ballyhooed has petered out to nothing it seems. So it was
easy to buy into the idea of a weakening and dry system for Christmas
Day. Turned out that the system closed off into an upper low and
produced some widespread, although generally light rainfall amounts
over eastern and southern Alabama. There was even quite a bit of
excitement as sleet occurred in some areas. So, I am hoping that the
bust is a sign of things to come. The law of averages has to come our
way for awhile, and we should start busting in favor of too much
rainfall. Buy my logic? One can only hope.

DROUGHT DENTING RAINS AHEAD? A minor ridge of high pressure is over
Alabama this morning, giving us a fine December morning. But things
will be changing quickly in this progressive weather pattern we are
in. Another disturbance is already swinging our way. Clouds will be
on the increase late this afternoon and showers will enter the picture
overnight tonight. Showers will be possible through tomorrow as a
weak front settles into our area.

STRONG SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY: A stronger system will begin to
affect Alabama Thursday night. Moisture will surge northward and rain
and storms will begin to grow late Thursday night, especially after
midnight. Storms could become severe as far north as I-20 during the
overnight. Rain and storms will continue through much of the day
Friday.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Saturday should be dry. Now, the models are all
over the board, but it looks like Sunday could feature another
developing system over the Gulf that will spread rains our way on
Sunday again. They could be more to the south this time, but
hopefully they will extend far enough north to bring more beneficial
rains to much of the area.

CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER: The rains should depart Sunday night, but the
main cold front will not arrive until Monday night. Much colder air
will spread into Alabama on New Years Day. There are signs that we
could stay below freezing all day Wednesday, with readings down to
near 20 Wednesday night. No storm systems in sight during that time,
however.

ON THIS DATE IN 1947: New York City's "Big Snow." New York City
recorded its greatest 24-hour snowfall. In a 24-hour period ending on
the 27th, Central Park in New York, New York, received its greatest
snowfall of 26.4 inches, while 32 inches fell on some suburbs.
Because the storm was not accompanied by strong winds, it was not a
blizzard. Holiday travel was brought to a standstill. 27 deaths
occurred as a result of the storm. Snow removal of the estimated 10
million tons of snow cost over $8 million. 19 inches of snow fell in
just six hours at White Plains NY.

Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TODAY
A good deal of sunshine through early afternoon. Increasing clouds
late, with showers arriving overnight.
Afternoon High 55
WIND: SE 5-15

THURSDAY
Showers early, then mostly cloudy. Becoming windy, with rain/storms
increasing during the overnight.
Morning Low 42 Afternoon High 60
WIND: SE 6-18

FRIDAY
Windy with rain and storms.
Morning Low 56 Afternoon High 67
WIND: S 10-20

SATURDAY
Becoming sunny. Increasing clouds late with rain returning overnight.
Morning Low 41 Afternoon High 58
WIND: N 5-10

SUNDAY
Rain likely, with some thunder.
Morning Low 39 Afternoon High 61
WIND: S 7-14

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