ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Tuesday October 2, 2007
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...Watching the Gulf This Week...

DAY AGAIN TODAY: The easiest part of the forecast is in the short
term; very dry air remains in place across Alabama today, meaning
ample sunshine and a high in the mid 80s, about five degrees above
normal for early October in Alabama (our average high today is 80,
and the average low is 57). Tomorrow will also be dry and warm with a
good supply of sunshine through scattered clouds.

TROPICAL ACTION IN THE GULF? A disturbance will move westward across
the Florida peninsula today, and will emerge into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico tonight. With warm water and a good upper air ventilation
pattern, this system has the potential to become a warm-core tropical
system during the next 36 hours. Most likely, it will remain south of
Mobile Bay (by about 200 miles or so), and move in the general
direction of the upper Texas or Louisiana coast. As it moves to the
west, it will pull moisture up into Alabama later in the week, and we
will bring in the chance of widely scattered, mainly afternoon
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. Increasing humidity
levels will mean warmer nights, and rather uncomfortable days as
afternoon temperatures rise into the mid to upper 80s.

If a tropical storm does form in the Gulf of Mexico this week, it
will be called Noel.

WEEKEND PEEK: Warm and relatively moist air will continue to cover
Alabama, so for Saturday and Sunday we expect a mixture of clouds and
sunshine, with highs in the 80s and some chance of scattered showers
and thunderstorms both days. A strong system in the upper air is
forecast to send a significant cold front down this way at some
point, but it is very difficult to pin down the timing right now. It
could be that the best chance of organized showers and storms will
hold off until early next week, but that is not carved in stone right
now. Be watching for forecast changes as we get closer to the weekend.

TROPICAL TIDBITS: The circulation, that was formerly Tropical Storm
Melissa in the far eastern Atlantic, continue to show up on satellite
images, but has little in the way of thunderstorm activity around it.
This system should be no threat to land. And, the system that is
former Tropical Storm Karen is still hanging around north of the
Leeward Islands, but harsh upper air winds continue near the system
and additional organization is not likely in the short term.

RAIN UPDATE: Birmingham's rain total for the year is 23.52", and the
deficiency for 2007 is up to 18.26". Other rain deficits around
Alabama include 25.46" at Anniston and 23.46" at Tuscaloosa.
Alabama's wettest city so far this year is Brewton, near the Florida
state line, where the total is 43.83", and the deficiency is only 7.63".

HODGEPODGE: Miami was soaked with 2.14" of rain yesterday. Hottest
place in the nation was Death Valley, CA with 99 degrees. In Duluth,
Minnesota, the high yesterday was only 58 degrees.

James Spann
jspann@abc3340.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TODAY
Sunny with a warm afternoon.
Afternoon High 86
WIND: E 5-10

WEDNESDAY
A good supply of sunshine.
Morning Low 61 Afternoon High 87
WIND: E 5-10

THURSDAY
Partly sunny. A chance of widely scattered showers or storms by
afternoon.
Morning Low 68 Afternoon High 86
WIND: E 7-14

FRIDAY
Warm and humid. Only isolated afternoon showers.
Morning Low 71 Afternoon High 88
WIND: SE 5-10

SATURDAY
A mix of sun and clouds. Scattered showers and storms are possible by
afternoon.
Morning Low 72 Afternoon High 86
WIND: S 6-12

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Tonight on ABC 33/40:

6:30pm Wheel of Fortune
7:00pm Caveman
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8:00pm Dancing With The
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