ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Sunday September 16, 2007
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...Perfect!...

I don't think that you can have a more perfect start to the day here
in Alabama. Clear skies. Calm winds. Temperatures in the 50s (and
a few 40s. Couldn't be better. Today will be another outstanding
day, with sunny skies, mild temperatures and low humidities.

YOUR FORECAST: High pressure is centered over western Pennsylvania
on this Sunday morning. A strong ridge of high pressure extends
southwestward all the way back into the Arklamiss region to our
west. This high pressure will keep us in fine conditions today and
Monday. A passing upper level disturbance to our north today may
trigger a few clouds during the middle of the day, but nothing in the
way of rain. With time, the high will shift eastward. As it does,
high pressure will spill down the East Coast and around the backside
of the Appalachian Mountains. This is the familiar easterly wedge.
We dread them in the winter. In late summer like now, their main
effect is to provide increased Atlantic moisture, more clouds and
slightly cooler temperatures. We could see spotty showers,
especially late in the week, but the general thought is that we will
be mostly dry and warm until then. An upper low is expected to form
off the Southeast Coast late in the week. It will likely move
westward into the Gulf of Mexico. This could be a player if we see…

TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT: The Saturday morning run of the GFS paints the
picture of a developing tropical depression in the northwestern
Caribbean by Thursday. This depression strengthens as it moves north
northwestward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. NO consistent
solution has developed over the past few model runs, so our
confidence is low. But suffice to say, the western Caribbean and Gulf
will be places to watch in the week ahead. Ingrid was ripped apart
by wind shear on Saturday and relegated to tropical depression status
in the Atlantic well east of the Leeward Islands. It will remain to
be seen if it lives long enough to re-intensify when the shear
relaxes in about 2 days. A tropical wave between Africa and the
Lesser Antilles has the potential to develop into a depression over
the next couple of days. There is also a disturbed weather area
north of Hispaniola.

IVAN: By some estimations, it was the stormiest day in Alabama
history. Not in terms of tornadoes, or fatalities. But in terms of
just pure storminess, it is the wildest weather day in my lifetime.
Hurricane Ivan made landfall near Gulf Shores around 1:50 a.m. on
this date back in 2004. As the hurricane approached the northern
Gulf Coast, a strong upper level trough produced a tremendous amount
of shear that began to impinge on the hurricane in the final hours
before landfall. The hurricane weakened only slowly in the last few
hours, and was still a formidable category three storm at landfall
with top winds of 125 mph. Ivan had a huge eye when it came ashore –
nearly fifty miles wide. This pushed the region of maximum winds
east to near the Florida/Alabama border. Ivan remained a major
hurricane (category three or higher) for nine days before it made
landfall, an all time record in the Atlantic. It moved northward
during the day, spreading heavy rainbands ahead of the center.
Strong winds continued for hours across Central Alabama with constant
torrential rains. 9.84 inches of rain fell at the Birmingham
Airport, the greatest one day total in the city's history. Winds
gusted to 42 mph at BHM. Ivan's life history in today's weather
history posting on alabamawx.com.

Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TODAY
Coolest morning in months. Another nice day. Just a few clouds
during the middle of the day.
Afternoon High 82
WIND: NE 6-12

MONDAY
Partly cloudy.
Morning Low 61 Afternoon High 84
WIND: E 5-10

TUESDAY
A mix of clouds and sunshine. An increasing easterly flow.
Morning Low 64 Afternoon High 83
WIND: E 6-12

WEDNESDAY
Partly cloudy.
Morning Low 64 Afternoon High 82
WIND: E 6-12

THURSDAY
Partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower.
Morning Low 66 Afternoon High 84
WIND: NE 5-10

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8:00pm Anchorman
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