ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Wednesday September 19, 2007
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...Tropical Trouble For the Gulf...

EYES ON FLORIDA: A low pressure disturbance will be moving slowly
westward today across the Florida peninsula, and should emerge into
the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico tonight and tomorrow. As that
happens, there is a good chance it grows stronger, becoming a
tropical depression, and ultimately a tropical storm. Sea surface
temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are generally in the 84 to 89
degree range (F), and a favorable upper air pattern should give this
system the opportunity to become a formidable system as it moves to
the west/northwest tomorrow afternoon into Friday. If this one
becomes a tropical storm, the name will be Jerry.

Most of the model guidance now moves the system into Southeast
Louisiana, in the general direction of New Orleans and the mouth of
the Mississippi River, with potential landfall Friday night or
Saturday morning. There is a decent chance that Jerry will become a
minimal hurricane by the time it reaches land, and we have to
remember the rapid deepening we saw in Humberto last week as it moved
into the Upper Texas coast. So, all interests along the Gulf coast
from Galveston to Cedar Key will need to pay close attention to this
one.

THE IMPACT ON ALABAMA: A very difficult forecast; and we really won't
be completely comfortable with the forecast until the tropical system
gets better organized in the eastern Gulf and we can get a good look
at it. The models are generally taking Jerry into Southeast
Louisiana, with the deep moisture plume associated with the system
then moving to the north through Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas,
and Missouri over the weekend, generally to the west of Alabama. But,
we note that the circulation around the tropical system will still
have the potential to pull a good bit of moisture into Alabama from
the east, and for that reason we could see an increase in clouds
statewide by late Friday and the weekend. For now, we have the best
chance of showers and storms over the southern half of the state, but
that could change as our system continues to get better organized.
Just be aware that some significant changes are possible in our
weekend forecast package in coming days.

LONG RANGE: No sign of any serious invasion of chilly Canadian air
during the last 10 days of September and the first few days of
October; and it looks like the tropical weather scene could remain
fairly active. Hopefully we will have one or two decent rain events
with tropical systems during the next two weeks.

STORM ALERT XTREME: A reminder we have set the date for our annual
SKYWARN training session… if you want to be a storm spotter, or if
you are one now, you need to be there. Brian Peters of our staff,
long time NWS meteorologist, will do the training, and the event will
be on Saturday November 10 at the BJCC in downtown Birmingham. Mark
it on your calendar, we will have details soon!

James Spann
jspann@abc3340.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TODAY
A good supply of sunshine.
Afternoon High 85
WIND: E 6-12

THURSDAY
Mostly sunny and warm.
Morning Low 60 Afternoon High 86
WIND: E 6-12

FRIDAY
Partly sunny. A shower possible, mainly south of Birmingham.
Morning Low 65 Afternoon High 88
WIND: E 6-12

SATURDAY
Cloudy at times. A chance of showers, mostly to the south of Birmingham.
Morning Low 67 Afternoon High 88
WIND: SE 6-12

SUNDAY
A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of scattered showers.
Morning Low 68 Afternoon High 87
WIND: SE 6-12

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6:30pm Wheel of Fortune
7:00pm According To Jim
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