ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Thursday September 20, 2007
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...Eyes on the Gulf of Mexico...

WATCHING FOR JERRY: A broad low pressure area is forecast to become
better organized over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next 36
hours, and a favorable upper air pattern and warm ocean water suggest
the system has the potential to become Tropical Storm Jerry by
tomorrow night. This system holds the key to the weekend weather here
in Alabama, and makes for a rather difficult forecast.

The computer models are suggesting the system will move in the
general direction of Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi,
with landfall at some point over the weekend. There is a very real
chance that this system could become a hurricane by the time it
reaches the coast, but trying to be specific with the track and
intensity is very difficult at this stage of the game since it is not
really organized right now. For now, we believe the best chance of
rain and thunderstorms tomorrow and Saturday will be over the
southern half of Alabama, with the possibility of tropical storm
conditions on the Alabama Gulf coast in far southern Mobile and
Baldwin Counties.

All interests on the Gulf coast from Galveston to Cedar Key, Florida
will need to keep up with the progress of this system in coming days,
and be ready for quick action in case rapid deepening occurs, which
is certainly possible considering the favorable upper air ventilation
pattern and the warm ocean water.
Sunday, as the tropical system moves into Louisiana, deeper moisture
will be pulled into Alabama, and we will mention a chance of
scattered showers and thunderstorms statewide. That deep moisture
layer will linger early next week, so we will maintain the chance of
showers and storms on Monday and Tuesday as well.

WHAT ABOUT NEW ORLEANS? Our potential tropical cyclone in the Gulf
will be attacking New Orleans from the worst possible angle; a
tropical storm or hurricane coming into the city from the east/
southeast has the potential to push a wall of water from the Gulf
into Lake Pontchartrain, then over the levees into the city. This
could offer a serious test of the city levee system, but that will
depend on the strength of the system and the exact track.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL: For tonight's game across Alabama, the sky
should be mostly clear with a kickoff temperature of around 78
degrees. Tomorrow night, some clouds will be around, and some light
rain is possible at stadiums mainly south of a line from Anniston to
Montgomery to Mobile. The most widespread rain tomorrow night should
over Southeast Alabama in places like Dothan and Geneva. Kickoff
temperature tomorrow night will be in the upper 70s as well.

ON THIS DATE in 1925 Birmingham's high was 100 degrees. That is the
latest triple digit high on record here. Our latest high of 90 or
higher came on October 17, 1897 when the high was 91.

James Spann
jspann@abc3340.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TODAY
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon High 86
WIND: NE 6-12

FRIDAY
Warm with a mix of sun and clouds. A slight risk of a shower south
and east of Birmingham.
Morning Low 65 Afternoon High 87
WIND: E 6-12

SATURDAY
Cloudy at times. A chance of showers, mostly to the south of Birmingham.
Morning Low 70 Afternoon High 87
WIND: SE 7-14

SUNDAY
Mixed sun and clouds. A chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms.
Morning Low 71 Afternoon High 86
WIND: S 7-14

MONDAY
Scattered showers and storms.
Morning Low 72 Afternoon High 85
WIND: SW 7-14

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Tonight on ABC 33/40:

6:30pm Wheel of Fortune
7:00pm Ugly Betty
8:00pm Grey's Anatomy
9:00pm Men In Trees
10:00pm ABC 33/40 News
10:35pm Nightline

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