ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Monday October 1, 2007
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...Welcome To October...

GOOD MORNING: October is the driest month of the year in Central
Alabama. That is not good news considering that we have rainfall
deficits of 18-25 inches across much of the area. Persistent high
pressure has been our arch nemesis for much of 2007 and we need that
to change.

IS THERE ANY HOPE FOR RAIN? We look to the tropics with a hopeful
eye. An area of disturbed weather east of Florida across the Bahamas
shows signs of future development and a tropical or subtropical
depression could form as it moves westward toward the Gulf of Mexico.
The ridge of high pressure over the southern states will steer it
westward toward Texas or Louisiana. It will remain far enough to our
south to prevent any widespread or heavy rainfall, unfortunately. But
as it rounds the high pressure ridge, it will weaken it a bit and
allow for a surge of moisture from the south. This will bring back a
chance of showers and storms by Friday. Weakening the ridge will also
allow a front al system to approach from the northwest by Sunday. The
GFS had been bullish on rainfall from this system, but has of course
backed off now. We will see.

TROPICS: Wind shear has taken its toll on our weekend tropical
storms. Both Karen and Melissa bet untimely demises because of strong
westerly wind shear over the Atlantic. The remnants of Karen continue
on a northwestward course east of the Lesser Antilles. This will
eventually carry it into an area that is more favorable for
regeneration. It will be monitored. The remnants of Melissa will be
similarly watched. The system off the Southeast coast will be a topic
of conversation as it moves toward the Gulf.

STORMY IN THE SUNSHINE STATE: 2.63 inches of rain fell yesterday at
Miami along with 1.22 inches fell at Fort Lauderdale. Winds gusted to
gale force along the coast. Five to six foot breakers were reported
along with dangerous rip currents. High surf warnings are in effect
for today as breakers may reach ten feet at times. Beach erosion was
reported near Jacksonville along with high tides. The strong
northeasterly flow will continue through Wednesday.

ON THIS DATE IN 1893: The second major hurricane of the year struck
the Bayou Country of Louisiana with little warning. Heavy destruction
was reported along the coast from Timbalier Bay in Louisiana to
Pensacola. Landfall occurred between Port Eads and New Orleans.
Winds reached hurricane force around nightfall and continued to
increase until the eye crossed the shore about 11 p.m. By late
evening, storm surge was increasing water levels along the low-lying
coastal sections and tides would eventually reach fifteen feet along
the Louisiana coast and sixteen feet on the Chandaleur Islands. Waves
reached as high as the lantern at the Chandaleur Island Lighthouse. A
total of two thousand people died in the storm, including 779 from
Cheniere Caminanda and another 250 at Grand Lake.

Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TODAY
Plentiful sunshine.
Afternoon High 83
WIND: SE 5-10

TUESDAY
Sunny skies the rule.
Morning Low 59 Afternoon High 85
WIND: E 5-10

WEDNESDAY
Partly cloudy.
Morning Low 61 Afternoon High 86
WIND: E 5-10

THURSDAY
A mix of clouds and sun.
Morning Low 63 Afternoon High 88
WIND: SE 5-10

FRIDAY
Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a shower or storm.
Morning Low 68 Afternoon High 87
WIND: SE 6-12

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