ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Sunday September 2, 2007
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...90 Degree Streak Comes To An End...

Held in check most of the day by extensive cloudiness leftover from
Friday night's convection, the mercury got a late start on Saturday
at Birmingham. It made a valiant effort to make 90, but fell just
short, peaking at 89F just before 2 p.m. The sub-90 degree reading
was the first since July 25th, marking the end of a record tying 37
day 90 degree streak in the Magic City. Pinson did keep their record
90 degree streak alive at 38 days. They could easily extend it today.

ON THE WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING: A complex set of features adorn
the weather map this morning across the Deep South. First, we find a
frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast. Several small low pressure
systems are rippling along it. High pressure near New York City is
ridging down the east coast and proving an easterly flow into
Alabama. Some drier air is poised to advect into Alabama from
northern Georgia. A trough of low pressure is over Mississippi and
western Tennessee. It should continue to move westward. Now, our
main two forecast models are involved in a controversy. The GFS
keeps things much drier today, and over the next few days, with only
isolated storms. The NAM keeps things much wetter. I have to lean
toward the drier solution of the GFS for the next couple of days,
given the rapid demise of convection yesterday and the drier air over
northern Georgia. So, we will call for only isolated storms through
Thursday. By Friday, a large trough will be approaching the
Mississippi River and rain and thunderstorms will be widespread to
our west. This activity should affect Alabama next weekend.

TROPICS: Felix became a hurricane early last evening. It spent
Saturday steadily intensifying over the southern Caribbean. There is
nothing really to keep this trend from continuing. The westward
moving tropical cyclone will pass just north of the islands of
Curacao, Bonaire and Aruba. Felix should continue on a west or west
northwesterly course over the next five days, eventually brushing the
Honduran coast on Tuesday. It will then target the Yucatan, likely
making landfall in Belize on Wednesday. Then comes the uncertainty.
The trough that will be setting up over the Mississippi Valley will
come into play as the hurricane continues westward. If the influence
of the trough extends far enough to the south, it may draw Felix
northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. If it misses the trough,
Felix will cross into Mexico. It will be interesting to watch. A
strong tropical wave between Africa and the Lesser Antilles may
become a tropical depression over the next day or so. I think it
ends up recurving out to sea.

ON THIS DATE IN 2004: Floridians were bracing for their second
category four hurricane in less than three weeks as Hurricane Frances
was chewing its way through the Bahamas. The storm, packing winds
of 145 mph, prompted the largest evacuation in the history of the
Sunshine State, as 2.5 million people were asked to evacuate.

Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TODAY
Partly cloudy. An easterly breeze. Isolated storms form, most likely
over South Central sections.
Afternoon High 88
WIND: E 7-14

MONDAY
Partly cloudy. A slight chance of an afternoon or evening storm.
Morning Low 69 Afternoon High 90
WIND: E 6-12

TUESDAY
Partly cloudy. A small chance of a PM storm.
Morning Low 69 Afternoon High 91
WIND: S 5-10

WEDNESDAY
More of the same. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a storm in
the afternoon or evening.
Morning Low 69 Afternoon High 91
WIND: S 5-10

THURSDAY
Partly sunny. Widely scattered storms develop.
Morning Low 71 Afternoon High 89
WIND: S5-10

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Tonight on ABC 33/40:

6:00pm AFV
7:00pm Extreme Makeover
8:00pm Desperate Housewives
9:00pm Brothers & Sisters
10:00pm ABC3340 News
10:35pm The Zone

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