ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Thursday August 23, 2007
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...One More Blistering Day...

FINAL TRIPLE DIGIT DAY? There is a chance that today will be the last
day of widespread 100 degree heat across Alabama in 2007. And, most
folks will probably say "good riddance". We expect afternoon
temperatures to rise into the 100 to 106 degree range today, in
record territory and over ten degrees above normal for August 23. The
good news is that, like yesterday, dewpoints are expected to be
rather low during the peak of the heat, with humidity values only in
the 20 percent range during the afternoon hours. That will make the
extreme heat a little more tolerable. Today will be the 14th day this
summer with a high of 100 degrees or hotter in Birmingham (all of
those days have come during the month of August).

ONLY A SLOW COOL DOWN: We need to stress that the weather will remain
very hot tomorrow, but with the upper air ridge breaking down a bit,
and moisture levels increasing, we figure the high tomorrow will be
in the 96 to 99 degree range for most spots. And, we will introduce
the chance of a few isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening hours.

OUR WEEKEND: As the moisture levels continue to increase, partly due
to a tropical wave moving through, we expect an associated increase
in the number of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday.
Rainfall distribution won't be very even due to the scattered nature
of the showers and storms, but some spots could pick over one half
inch of rain this weekend. And, afternoon highs should drop back into
the 92 to 96 degree range.

LONG RANGE: The GFS (the primary American global computer model)
totally breaks down the heat ridge at the end of next week, replacing
it with a long wave upper air trough over the eastern U.S., which
will bring a cold front down this way and enhance the coverage of
showers and storms in about 7 to 8 days from now. An even stronger
front shows up in the September 5-7 time frame, which has the
potential to bring our first taste of Canadian air, and a preview of
fall. But, as I like to say, this is voodoo country because it is
more than seven days in advance. There is very little skill in a
specific forecast beyond seven days, but the model might be on to
something this time.

TROPICS: Dean will dissipate today over the mountains of Central
Mexico. Some moisture from Dean will move up into the Southwest U.S.
over the weekend, enhancing the monsoon moisture flow across Arizona
and New Mexico. And, the tropical wave moving into the Florida
peninsula this morning shows no sign of organization.

TOO HOT: Interesting to note that Birmingham, with our high of 104
yesterday, was hotter than: Dallas (their high was 96), Tucson,
Arizona (the high there was 102), and Miami (where the high was 91).
Atlanta's high of 104 was an all-time high for the month of August,
and within one degree of the all time high of 105 set two times
during the heat wave of 1980.

James Spann
jspann@abc3340.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TODAY
Another day with blazing heat. Mostly sunny.
Afternoon High 103
WIND: NW 5-10

FRIDAY
Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon storms are possible.
Morning Low 76 Afternoon High 98
WIND: SE 5-10

SATURDAY
Mixed sun and clouds. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms
by afternoon.
Morning Low 75 Afternoon High 96
WIND: SE 6-12

SUNDAY
Warm and humid with scattered showers and storms, mainly during the
afternoon.
Morning Low 73 Afternoon High 94
WIND: S 6-12

MONDAY
Intervals of sunshine. Scattered showers and storms.
Morning Low 74 Afternoon High 93
WIND: SW 6-12

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