ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Friday August 17, 2007
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...A Few Isolated Afternoon Storms...

DID YOU NOTICE? Our weather was two degrees cooler yesterday. The high
was only 103, down from 105 on Wednesday. A real cool snap. That high
of 103 tied the record high for August 16 (it was last set in 1995),
and extended our string of consecutive 100 degree days to 10, also a
record. Most likely, today will be the 11th day in a row with triple
digit heat for Alabama as we are forecasting a high of 101. There
should be enough moisture for a few isolated showers and storms this
afternoon, but many communities will stay dry.

Heat levels will back down only slightly over the weekend; we will be
bold and daring and forecast a high of only 98 on Sunday afternoon.
Like today, there will be enough moisture for a few widely scattered
showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours. The weather
should remain in a holding pattern through early next week.

TROPICAL TROUBLE: Erin moved into the Texas coast early yesterday, and
the remnant circulation will be responsible for heavy rain and the
threat of flash flooding over parts of Central and East Texas today.
But, the big story is Hurricane Dean, which is moving into the
Caribbean this morning. Dean is forecast to strengthen into a
dangerous, category four hurricane within the next 36 hours. The
official forecast takes the big storm south of Cuba and Jamaica over
the weekend. Then, by early next week, it should be near the northern
tip of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula. The computer models have adjusted a
bit to the north on the most recent runs, which means an increased
risk to the Texas coast toward the middle part of next week.

But, we caution you there is little skill in forecasting the specific
landfall point of a hurricane this far in advance. All interests
around the coast, from Mexico to Mobile Bay, will need to monitor this
storm closely in coming days. If Dean moves across the Yucatan, it
will lose some of its strength. But, as it emerges into the warm Gulf
of Mexico, it will likely grow stronger again.

DROUGHT MONITOR: Birmingham's rain deficiency for the year is up to
20.65". The deficit at Tuscaloosa is a whopping 25.01"… Tuscaloosa has
received only 13.78 inches this year.

THE HEAT PARADE: Highs across Alabama yesterday included 107 at
Samantha (northern Tuscaloosa County), 106 at Muscle Shoals and Black
Creek (northeast of Gadsden in Etowah County), 105 at Vinemont and
Huntsville, and 104 in Decatur, Cullman, Anniston, and Pinson. The
"cool" spot in the state was Mobile with 95 degrees.

DRENCHED: Rain from Tropical Storm Erin totaled 3.90" at San Antonio,
and 2.59" at Houston yesterday. There were unofficial reports of 8
inches of rain in a few spots between those two cities. Flash flood
watches cover this same general area today, and an additional four
inches of rain is possible.

James Spann
jspann@abc3340.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TODAY
Partly sunny and hot. Isolated thunderstorms by afternoon.
Afternoon High 101
WIND: SW 5-10

SATURDAY
Partly sunny. A chance of widely scattered, mainly afternoon thunderstorms.
Morning Low 76 Afternoon High 100
WIND: E 5-10

SUNDAY
Sunny during the morning. A few scattered storms by afternoon.
Morning Low 75 Afternoon High 98
WIND: SE 5-10

MONDAY
A mix of sun and clouds. A passing afternoon thunderstorm in a few spots.
Morning Low 76 Afternoon High 97
WIND: S 5-10

TUESDAY
Morning sunshine; a few widely scattered storms by afternoon.
Morning Low 77 Afternoon High 97
WIND: SW 5-10

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