ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Thursday August 2, 2007
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...One Eye On the Gulf...

Three areas of interest in the tropical Atlantic early on this
Thursday morning. We will talk about two of them later in this
report. Closest to home, we are seeing a flare up of thunderstorms
over the northern Gulf of Mexico, associated with our old frontal
boundary. That is a frequent breeding area for tropical systems in
the Gulf. There is a good chance that this will develop into
something tropical in nature. But, we really have no idea where it
might go. The models are no help at all. It could remain stationary
off the coast. It could drift north into Alabama or Mississippi. It
could drift west toward Texas. We will have to wait and see. If it
drifts our way, it could be a big help in the rainfall department.

FORECAST RATIONALE: Show your work. You had to do that in math in
grade school, right? We always try to show our work here also. The
low in the Gulf is south of Houma, LA this morning. Our best guess is
that it will drift northward toward the coast. This will cause a wet
day all along the Gulf Coast into the Panhandle. We stay high and dry
through Friday, with high pressure over the Smokies in control of our
weather. It begins to break down by Saturday and the moisture edges
northward. This means scattered storms for Saturday, and a better
chance for Sunday and Monday. Keep your fingers crossed.

TROPICS: Chantal is a non-tropical low moving across the shipping
lanes of the North Atlantic. An Air Force plane investigating the
tropical wave entering the Caribbean could not find a closed low
yesterday afternoon. The system still has a good base of thunderstorm
activity and there is a chance that a tropical depression could form
in the next day or two.

TYPHOON USAGI: The powerful typhoon that we have been tracking in the
western Pacific will reach the southern islands of Japan Thursday
evening. It will pass over or between Kyushu and Shikoku and over
southern Honshu before recurving. The recurve will carry the storm
back over northern Honshu around noon on Saturday, Birmingham time.
It is weakening, and it may barely be typhoon strength when it makes
landfall this evening. By Saturday, it may barely be a tropical
storm.

ON THIS DATE IN 2005: Air France Flight 358, an Airbus A340-300, was
on approach to Toronto's Rearson International Airport. A severe
thunderstorm warning was in effect for the city. It had been a rough
weather day, and the airport had been closed several times. As the
plane landed in windy, rainy conditions, the plane overran the end of
the runway and broke into pieces in a ravine. All 309 passengers and
crew escaped before the plane exploded in flames and burned. Only 43
people were injured, and the injuries were described as minor.
Discussions after the incident indicated that the gully at the end of
the runway needed to be filled in to provide a longer safe zone.

Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

=========================================================
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205.985.7295 or

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=========================================================

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TODAY
Mostly sunny and hot.
Afternoon High 95
WIND: E 6-12

FRIDAY
Partly sunny. Only a slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm.
Morning Low 73 Afternoon High 94
WIND: E 6-12

SATURDAY
Partly sunny. Scattered, mostly afternoon, showers and thunderstorms.
Morning Low 72 Afternoon High 91
WIND: SE 5-10

SUNDAY
A better chance of showers and storms.
Morning Low 72 Afternoon High 89
WIND: S 5-10

MONDAY
A fairly good chance of showers and storms.
Morning Low 72 Afternoon High 88
WIND: S 5-10

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