ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Friday July 20, 2007
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...Strong Storms Possible...

Usually in mid to late July, the primary storm track across North
America is well to the north of here, often in Canada. But during the
next 48 hours the jet will take a big dip (we call it a trough) over
the eastern part of the nation, and that will help to drive a rare
July cold front into Alabama tomorrow. We really don't like to use the
words "cold front" time time of the year, but there is a very real
possibility that much drier air will move into the northern half of
the state by tomorrow afternoon, which will mean cooler nights.

Before the dry air gets here, we expect a pronounced increase in the
number of showers and thunderstorms around here this afternoon and
tonight. With a belt of stronger winds aloft involved and some decent
surface based instability, we might see a few storms that are strong
to severe during the late afternoon or evening hours. We expect a
majority of the storms between 3:00 p.m. and 12:00 midnight, and most
communities can expect about one-half inch of rain. The heavier
downpours will bring isolated spots over one inch of rain.

THE WEEKEND: Drier will slowly drop southward tomorrow, and we will
maintain a chance of scattered showers mainly during the morning
hours. By afternoon, we figure the bulk of the showers and storms will
be south of I-20, or south of a line from Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to
Anniston. The sky will be clear tomorrow night, and with lower
dewpoints we expect a low in the 60 to 65 degree range by daybreak
Sunday. This isn't too far from the record low for Sunday (July 22),
55 degrees (established in 1957). Sunday promises to be a day with
almost maximum available sunshine and low humidity.

LONG RANGE: Showers and storms should remain rather scarce on Monday
and Tuesday of next week, but returning moisture should mean a chance
of scattered afternoon showers and storms during the latter half of
the week.

TROPICS: A large area of disturbed weather is moving through the
eastern Caribbean; this wave will continue to move to the
west/northwest during the next 36 hours, but we expect it to turn
north, and northeast before reaching the coast of the Southeast U.S.
While upper air winds for now are not favorable for any development,
it could become a hybrid type system off the Atlantic coast, and it
could bring wind and rain to the upper half of the Atlantic coast late
in the weekend. One way or
another, it should not impact our weather in any way.

AT THE BEACH: We expect about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day along
the Gulf coast from Panama City to Gulf Shores through the weekend
with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. The SST (sea surface
temperature) at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab (at the southern tip of
Mobile Conty) last night was a warm 86 degrees.

HODGEPODGE: Chicago was soaked with 1.70" of rain yesterday.
Birmingham's high was 92 degrees, the first time we have reached 90 in
five days. Montgomery and Muscle Shoals were the hottest places in the
state with 95 degrees.

James Spann
jspann@abc3340.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TODAY
Intervals of sunshine. A good chance of showers and storms this
afternoon and tonight. Strong storms are possible.
Afternoon High 90
WIND: NW 7-14

SATURDAY
A mix of sun and clouds. Scattered showers and storms, especially
during the morning.
Morning Low 67 Afternoon High 88
WIND: N 5-10

SUNDAY
Mostly sunny and less humid. A very pleasant morning.
Morning Low 63 Afternoon High 91
WIND: NE 5-10

MONDAY
Partly sunny. Only a small risk of an afternoon shower.
Morning Low 64 Afternoon High 92
WIND: E 5-10

TUESDAY
Partially sunny. Any afternoon showers will be rather isolated.
Morning Low 69 Afternoon High 91
WIND: SW 5-10

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