ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Tuesday May 29, 2007
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...Showers Possible Late This Week...

Our current forecast is not very optimistic on the subject of rain for
the mid-week period. We are going to mention only a few isolated
showers through Thursday; the last three days of May. Any rain will
help, but isolated showers just won't cut it. So what if we do get
some isolated showers but NONE of them occur over the Birmingham
airport, site of official weather observations for Central Alabama
since the late 1800s (which seems likely)? If that occurs, current
weather records indicate that May, 2007, would be the fifth driest May
on record with a monthly total of 1.08 inches.
Drier months include May, 1898, with 0.11″, May, 1936, with 0.65″,
May, 2000, with 0.88″, and May, 1941, with 1.05″. Should an isolated
shower occur over the airport site, the records show that places sixth
through tenth are tightly clustered between 1.15″ and 1.26″ - which
means that just about any rain before June 1 would throw the current
month out of the top ten driest Mays.
In researching this dryness, I was amazed to find that on 25 separate
months in Birmingham, the monthly rainfall has been one half inch or
less. The driest month was September, 1927, with only 0.03″ of rain. I
think it's safe to say that no tropical systems affected Central
Alabama that year. (thanks to Brian Peters for this research data).

SOME HOPE FOR RAIN: We will continue to show an increase risk of at
least scattered showers and thunderstorms by Friday and the weekend as
an upper trough and surface cold front influence Alabama's weather.
There is great disagreement among the various computer models we use
concerning the specific details, so confidence in the timing of the
showers is very low at this point. But, there is some chance that a
few Alabama communities will see between one-half and one inch of rain
at some point between Friday and Sunday.

AIR QUALITY: A code orange air quality alert is up again today for the
Birmingham metro area today; that means air quality should be
unhealthy for sensitive groups, like people with asthma and
respiratory problems. We still expect some smoke today from the
wildfires in South Georgia with low level winds continuing out of the
southeast.

AT THE BEACH: You will have to dodge a few scattered showers and
thunderstorms along the Central Gulf coast through Friday; otherwise
days will be partly sunny with about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine on a
daily basis. The water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab
reached 80 degrees late yesterday as the ocean continues to warm.

ROAMING FAR AND WIDE: More heavy rain in Texas yesterday; totals
included 1.67" at Austin and 1.47" at Houston. The hottest place in
the nation yesterday was Death Valley, CA with 107. Alabama's warmest
spot was Evergreen with 91 degrees; Tuscaloosa, Muscle Shoals, and
Montgomery were close behind with 90.

James Spann
jspann@abc3340.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TODAY
Another warm, dry day with hazy sunshine.
Afternoon High 887
WIND: SE 6-12

WEDNESDAY
Partly sunny and hazy.
Morning Low 64 Afternoon High 86
WIND: SE 6-12

THURSDAY
Partly sunny.
Morning Low 65 Afternoon High 86
WIND: S 6-12

FRIDAY
Warm and humid. A chance of widely scattered, mainly afternoon showers
or storms.
Morning Low 66 Afternoon High 85
WIND: S 6-12

SATURDAY
Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and storms.
Morning Low 68 Afternoon High 84
WIND: SW 7-14

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