ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Wednesday November 15, 2006
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...A Major Severe Weather Threat Today...

ALL EYES ON THE SKY TODAY: Ingredients are coming together for the potential
for a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms across Alabama today. A
dynamic upper air trough, featuring winds of well over 100 knots at jet
stream level (25,000 to 30,000 feet) will approach from the west, and
unstable air will be pulled northward toward a deep surface low developing
between Little Rock and Memphis. Dewpoints in the 60s should move up into
the northern half of the state, making for a relatively unstable atmosphere.

By late morning, thunderstorms will increase in both coverage and intensity
across the entire state, and those storms will be capable of producing
isolated tornadoes thanks to a very favorable shear profile in the lower 3
kilometers of the atmosphere. Then, later in the day, a fast moving squall
line will move across the state with potential for damaging straight line
winds. The primary severe weather threat will come from about 10:00 this
morning until 7:00 this evening. SPC maintains a moderate risk of severe
weather for areas along and south of I-20, or south of a line from
Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston.

Needless to say, this will be a day to be close to a good source of severe
weather information in the event warnings are needed. For school
administrators, we prefer that schools remain open today; a high percentage
of children in rural Alabama live in mobile homes, so when schools close
early due to severe weather potential those kids go home to the worst
possible place. There is, of course, the possibility that some schools might
have to hold children longer than normal if severe weather is ongoing at
3:00, but we would sure prefer for the kids to be in a safe school building.
Businesses also might consider reviewing their severe weather plan this
morning.

BLUSTERY TOMORROW: The storms will end early tonight, and much colder air
arrives tomorrow. Looks like we will hold in the 40s much of the day with a
cloudy sky, and some risk of a little light rain or drizzle during the
morning hours.
Sunshine finally returns in full force on Friday as the mercury rises to
near 60 degrees. At this point the weather looks excellent on Saturday for
the Iron Bowl game in Tuscaloosa; the sky should be partly to mostly sunny
with a kickoff temperature in the low to mid 60s.

NEXT WEEK: Another surge of colder air moves into the state early next week;
for now we don't expect any significant precipitation with that cold air
surge. The weather for the rest of the week looks generally cool and dry,
although some light rain could show up by the end of next week. No major
storm systems expected here next week, although a big storm could form on
the mid-Atlantic coast by Wednesday, possibly causing major airport delays
for places like Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia on the day before
Thanksgiving.

EXTREMES: Hottest place in the nation yesterday was Laredo, Texas with 90
degrees, while in Alaska the cold spot was the community of Eagle with a
bitter cold 39 degrees below zero.

James Spann jspann@abc3340.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TODAY
Windy with showers and thunderstorms. Some storms severe; isolated tornados
are possible.
Afternoon High 69
WIND: S 12-25

THURSDAY
Mostly cloudy, breezy, and colder. Some light rain or drizzle possible
during the morning.
Morning Low 45 Afternoon High 50
WIND: W 10-20

FRIDAY
Mostly sunny.
Morning Low 35 Afternoon High 60
WIND: W 5-10

SATURDAY
Partly sunny.
Morning Low 36 Afternoon High 65
WIND: SW 5-10

SUNDAY
Cooler with a mix of sun and clouds.
Morning Low 38 Afternoon High 57
WIND: NW 7-14

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Tonight on ABC 33/40:

6:00pm ABC 33/40 News
6:30pm Wheel of Fortune
7:00pm Dancing With The
Stars
8:00pm Day Break
10:00pm ABC 33/40 News
10:35pm Nightline

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