ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Morning Edition For Sunday August 27, 2006
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...Eyes on Ernesto...

One year ago today, we were very concerned about Hurricane Katrina. Just
365 days later, we are dealing with another potential problem. His name is
Ernesto.

WHAT ABOUT ERNESTO? It is a wait and see situation now as Tropical Storm
Ernesto continues northwestward to the south of the island of Hispaniola.
One of the Greater Antilles, Hispaniola is where you will find Haiti and the
Dominican Republic. Rainfall amounts of up to 20 inches will be possible
across the mountainous island. Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane
later today as it passes near the north coast of the island of Jamaica. It
will then pass along the southern coast of Cuba during the day on Monday
before crossing the island nation Tuesday morning. After this crossing, the
hurricane will be in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

WHERE DOES HE GO? It is hard to say at this time, but there are increasing
indications that the ridge across the northern Gulf will weaken, allowing a
northward shifts in the storm's track. By Thursday afternoon, the hurricane
will be about 150 miles south of the Florida Panhandle.

"DON'T PAY ATTENTION TO THE SKINNY BLACK LINE": Max Mayfield says that we be
the epitaph on his gravestone. What he means is, beware of the uncertainty.
Ernesto's center could end up anywhere between Lafayette, Louisiana and Key
West, Florida. All interest around the Gulf will have to pay attention to
this one.

INTENSITY: The upper low causing the shear is moving west and a high
pressure system is forecast to form over Ernesto. This will allow
strengthening to begin in earnest. The only inhibiting factor will be the
mountains of Cuba. As it moves into the Gulf, there appears to be nothing
to stop it from intensifying and Ernesto should become a major hurricane.

OUR WEATHER: Oh, yeah, we've got weather. Scattered storms with warm and
humid conditions through Monday. A front will approach on Tuesday giving us
better chances of storms. The front should settle in Central Alabama and
then our forecast will be dependent on what happens with Ernesto.

ON THIS DATE IN 1893: The Sea Islands Hurricane came ashore on the Sea
Islands near Beaufort, SC. This was the first of three major hurricanes to
affect the United States between August and October and one of six
hurricanes to hit the U.S. coast that year. Many communities along the
South Carolina coast were inundated by the storm surge. Death toll
estimates range between 2,000 and 2,500. 30,000 people were left homeless.
The Hurricane Season of 1893 was the second most deadly in United States
history, with two of the six hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S. that
year killing 2,000 people apiece.

Bill Murray
bill.murray@theweathercompany.com
ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weather Blog: http://www.alabamawx.com

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TODAY
A cloudy start. Becoming partly cloudy with scattered storms developing.
Afternoon High 90
WIND: SE 6-12

MONDAY
Morning cloudiness gives way to sun and scattered afternoon storms.
Morning Low 74 Afternoon High 91
WIND: SE 6-12

TUESDAY
A good chance of showers and storms.
Morning Low 74 Afternoon High 89
WIND: SW 6-12

WEDNESDAY
Mostly cloudy with a continued chance of showers and storms. Becoming
breezy.
Morning Low 71 Afternoon High 88
WIND: NW 8-16

THURSDAY
Thunderstorms with heavy rain likely. Windy.
Morning Low 71 Afternoon High 86
WIND: E/NE 15-30

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Tonight on ABC 33/40:

6:00pm Pirates of Caribbean
9:00pm Grey's Anatomy
10:00pm ABC 33/40 News
10:35pm The Zone

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