ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Sunday June 11, 2006
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GOOD AFTERNOON: We have our first tropical storm of the Atlantic Hurricane
Season on this Sunday, June 11th. It will be the first of many if the
experts are right. NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms. Eight to ten
of those are expected to go onto to become hurricanes and four to six will
go into to become major hurricanes. Dr. William Gray and his team at
Colorado State University issued their updated forecast on may 31st. It
calls for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major storms. These numbers
compare to the long term averages of 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2
major hurricanes.

ALBERTO: A disorganized tropical storm for sure, Alberto is not very
impressive. But Air Force reconnaissance did find tropical storm force
winds in the system this morning and the storm was upgraded from depression
status. Thunderstorms have been trying to form around the exposed center
today, but they are having a hard time due to strong southwesterly winds
that are shearing the storms away from the center. This hostile environment
will continue to make it hard for the storm to intensify. Only slight
intensification is expected.

LANDFALL: Alberto presents a difficult forecast. A weak storm like the one
we currently have is steered predominantly by low levels winds, which would
strand the storm in the central Gulf. Major forecast models still expect
the system to be steered northeasterly in advance of a trough dropping into
the Gulf Coastal region. This still is the official forecast, and carries
the storm to the Florida Big Bend area Tuesday morning as a tropical storm.
The storm crosses Florida and emerges into the Atlantic, paralleling the
coasts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. It then races
northeastward as a fairly potent non-tropical low as it moves over cooler
water.

IMPACT ON COASTAL SECTIONS: If the official track materializes, Alberto
will bring tropical storm force winds to the Florida Coast north of Tampa.
Minor storm surges of 2-4 feet will affect the coast south of landfall.
Very heavy rains will accompany the storm. To the north of the landfall, a
few showers may affect areas as far west as Panama City. Clouds were
already rotating over the Florida Panhandle and will continue though
tomorrow along with the showers. A decent northerly breeze will kick in
also. The threat of rip currents will be elevated.

OUR FORECAST: A weak cold front is heading our way and will approach the
state tomorrow. A few showers could break out late tonight. Those rain
chances will increase tomorrow, but the chance of any significant rainfall
is slim. Still, some of the storms could be on the strong side tomorrow
thanks to increasing moisture from the Gulf and the spark of the front.
Drier air will filter in starting Tuesday and dry conditions will prevail
through the end of the week. The weekend should seem the typical afternoon
and evening thunderstorms.

ON THIS DATE IN 1984: Thunderstorm downbursts (straight-line winds) often
have winds exceeding those produced by some tornadoes. A downburst estimated
to be 160 mph blew a home near Rowena, South Dakota, totally off its
foundation and scattered debris for several miles, killing two people.

Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weathertalk: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/weathertalk.hrb

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TONIGHT
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a late night shower or storm extreme
north.
Morning Low 73
WIND: SW 5-10

MONDAY
Partly sunny with a chance of a shower or storm. Some storms could be on
strong side.
Morning Low 73 Afternoon High 89
WIND: W 6-12

TUESDAY
Skies becoming mostly sunny.
Morning Low 65 Afternoon High 86
WIND: NE 5-10

WEDNESDAY
Mostly sunny.
Morning Low 65 Afternoon High 89
WIND: N 5-10

THURSDAY
Plenty of sunshine.
Morning Low 67 Afternoon High 91
WIND: N 5-10

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