ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Saturday June 10, 2006
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GOOD AFTERNOON: It seems like we just stopped talking about Tropical Storm Zeta. Zeta. And now, just ten days into the 2007 season, we are already talking about the likelihood of out first tropical storm.

ALBERTO: Tropical depression number one formed about 8 a.m. this morning in an area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Deep convection bloomed this morning, but the system is still disorganized. But it is over some 32.5C (85F) ocean water so the potential is there for strengthening. Upper level wind conditions over the system are marginally favorable for intensification, so the National Hurricane Center is calling for the system to become a tropical storm later today.

The future track of Alberto is a little more uncertain than usual with lots of factors still coming into focus. The GFS and the GFDL models both carry it into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, turning it gradually north northeastward and taking it to a landfall around midnight Monday night in the Florida Big Bend area north of Tampa. It would then exit the coast of northeastern Florida and hug the coast offshore of Savannah and Charleston, pass off the Outer Banks and then it races northeastward to east of the Canadian Maritimes Thursday morning. The NAM carries a much weaker low into the western Gulf where is meanders around at midweek.

Despite fairly strong wind shear over the Gulf, the official forecast strengthens Alberto to a a strong tropical storm (about 50 mph) before landfall in Florida. After it exits Florida, it will intensify again, but should lose tropical characteristics as it leaves the coast. It should quickly lose tropical characteristics over cooler water but it is destined to become a significant storm as it accelerates northeastward into the North Atlantic.

IMPACTS ON GULF COAST: Based on a forecast track that carries the storm northeastward into the Florida coast near Cedar Key, the impact to the vacation areas of Alabama and Northwest Florida should be minimal. The area around Panama City could see increasing clouds and a chance of showers Sunday afternoon into Monday. It may become quite breezy by Sunday afternoon and evening, especially over the eastern Florida Panhandle. Rip currents may become an increasing problem as winds build seas over the eastern Gulf late tomorrow into Monday. So swimmers should pay close attention to surf conditions and beach warning flags.

OUR FORECAST: Hot conditions will continue through tomorrow. Fair skies today will give way to partly cloudy skies on Sunday. Today should be rain free, and there is only a tiny chance tomorrow. Rain chances will increase slight on Monday as a front approaches from the north. The front slides through Monday night, but influences from the tropical cyclone passing to our south will lead to clouds and showers over eastern and southeastern sections Tuesday. Drier air should filter into North and Central Alabama behind the system, giving us normal temperatures and dry conditions through the end of the week and likely into the weekend. . We will be under the influence of a northwesterly flow aloft so a storm complex or two could come our way.

Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weathertalk: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/weathertalk.hrb

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TONIGHT
Mainly clear.
Morning Low 70
WIND: Light SW

SUNDAY
Partly cloudy and hot.
Morning Low 70 Afternoon High 94
WIND: SW 5-10

MONDAY
Partly sunny. A chance of a shower or storm.
Morning Low 73 Afternoon High 88
WIND: W 5-10

TUESDAY
Clouds and a chance of showers eastern/southern sections. Otherwise becoming mostly sunny.
Morning Low 64 Afternoon High 87
WIND: N 5-10

WEDNESDAY
Sunny skies.
Morning Low 63 Afternoon High 86
WIND: N 5-10

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