ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Wednesday May 17, 2006
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A COOL MAY SO FAR: Cool weather has been the story for Alabama
during the first half of May. For the first 16 days of the month, the
average high in Birmingham was only 74.7 degrees, considerably below normal.
We have reached 80 degrees on only two days (May 3 and 4), and on May 10 and
15 we failed to reach 70. The coolest temperature so far this month at the
Birmingham Airport was 48, but Pinson yesterday morning dropped to 43. Very
refreshing indeed.

THIS EVENING: We will maintain the chance of scattered showers and
storms this evening as very cold air aloft continues to make for an unstable
airmass. All of the showers should be over by midnight.

WARMER DAYS AHEAD: A warming trend begins tomorrow, as the mercury
heads for the upper 70s. Then, we will break the 80 degree barrier Friday
afternoon as temperatures get back to where they should be in mid-May in
Alabama. The chance of rain tomorrow seems to be so small it isn't worth a
mention in our formal forecast. A few showers might show up late Friday
afternoon, but they are most likely north of Birmingham.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: At this point the weather for the weekend looks
warm and mostly dry. While we can't totally rule out a shower on Saturday
and Sunday, they should be very widely spaced. High temperatures will be in
the low to mid 80s, with we should see a decent amount of sunshine on both
days.

LONG TERM: The upper air pattern over North America will slowly
change as we go through the latter part of May. The first half of the month
has
featured a very deep upper air trough over the eastern U.S., the reason for
our cool temperatures. The flow should flatten out a bit and move northward,
meaning our weather will be warmer and more humid during the final week of
May. Another words, the weather will look and feel more like summer.

There have been some hints at an early season tropical system
forming in the northeast Gulf of Mexico on some computer model runs. Nothing
to hang our hat on how, but it is not totally out of the question. Early
season tropical systems are usually weak, with the greatest problem coming
from heavy rain and flooding. The core of the tropical season, when the most
violent hurricanes usually develop, will come during August, September, and
the first part of October when the water is very warm and waves coming off
the coast of Africa have a long time to grow stronger.

THE NAME GAME: The first named tropical storm of the 2006 hurricane
season will be "Alberto". Names to come include Beryl, Chris, Debby,
Ernesto, and Florence.

ROAMING FAR AND WIDE: Coldest spot in the nation this morning was
Stanley, Idaho with 30 degrees. Here in Alabama, one of the coolest places
was Desoto State Park with a chilly 45 degrees. In contrast, the desert
southwest is dealing with blistering heat; Death Valley, CA reached 114
yesterday.

MISS MOLLY?: J.B. Elliott is taking a few days off. he will be back
soon!

James Spann
jspann@abc3340.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weathertalk: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/weathertalk.hrb

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TONIGHT
Scattered evening showers, then becoming mostly fair.
Morning Low 54
WIND: NW 3-6

THURSDAY
Breezy and warmer with a good supply of sunshine.
Morning Low 54 Afternoon High 79
WIND: NW 10-20

FRIDAY
Partly sunny and warm. An outside risk of a shower late in the day.
Morning Low 59 Afternoon High 83
WIND: W 7-14

SATURDAY
Partly to mostly sunny and warm. Few, if any, showers.
Morning Low 63 Afternoon High 84
WIND: W 6-12

SUNDAY
Mostly sunny. A warm afternoon. Any showers very isolated.
Morning Low 65 Afternoon High 85
WIND: W 6-12

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