ABC 33/40 E-Forecast
ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Saturday May 13, 2006
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING... An interesting situation across Alabama on this Saturday before Mothers Day. The mid levels of the atmosphere are very cold. A persistent band of cloudiness and rain showers continues across Tuscaloosa, western Jefferson, Hale, Bibb and Shelby Counties and points southeast. This is along an outflow boundary from this mornings storms.
MODERATE INSTABILITY: The morning runs of the ETA model predict CAPE's of over 2000 j/kg between mid-afternoon and sunset over parts of North Alabama. The model predicts that Lifted Index values will be as low as -6C by late afternoon. This will lead to the development of thunderstorms with very vigorous updrafts.
DECENT SHEAR/STEP LAPSE RATES: Shear in the atmosphere will be sufficient to create sustained updrafts and with steep lapse rates, large hail will develop. Expect stones to the size of golfballs with the stronger storms. There is also a threat of damaging winds will lots of dry air aloft. There will be reports of wind damage. Tornadoes should not be much of a threat. The activity will increase during the evening hours as a cold front approaches from the north. The activity will continue until midnight or so.
DAY ONE OUTLOOK: Most of Alabama is included in a Slight Risk category on the Day Out Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. To the west, the SPC says they are considering an upgrade to a moderate risk if instability levels are higher than expected over the Lower Mississippi Valley back into Texas.
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE: huge upper level low pressure system over the Great Lakes is our weather maker. And it is not going anywhere fast. It is expected to rotate down into the Ohio Valley. As it does, spokes of low pressure will rotate around the main low. This will lead to occasional bouts with showers into early next week. Even as the upper low begins to move east by Tuesday, it will leave a big trough of low pressure over the eastern United States. This means a good bit of cloudiness, cool temperatures running some 10-15F below normal and a chance of showers each day.
By Thursday, high pressure will begin to assert itself over the Gulf of Mexico. As it does, it will hold back a cold front that will be attempting to gain access to our area. This means increasingly nice weather as we head into the end of the week with warmer temperatures and more sunshine.
ON THIS DATE IN 2003: An F3 tornado ripped directly through the center of Kalamazoo MI, killing five and injuring seventy nine. The tornado passed directly over the American Bank, where a barograph reported a pressure drop of 0.59 inches. Remember when tornado safety rules told us to open a window if a tornado approaches? Bad advice. Dont do it. The pressure drop in a tornado is fortunately spread over a few seconds, which give most buildings and homes time to equalize the air pressure. The potential from damage by wind getting into the building is infinitely greater than the threat from the pressure drop.
Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com
ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weathertalk: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/weathertalk.hrb
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TONIGHT
Scattered showers and storms. Stronger storms could contain large hail and damaging winds.
Morning Low 53
WIND: SW 5-10
SUNDAY
Chance of a morning shower. Some clearing during the afternoon.
Morning Low 58 Afternoon High 68
WIND: NW 7-14
MONDAY
Breezy and cool. A chance of a few showers.
Morning Low 47 Afternoon High 67
WIND: NW 8-16
TUESDAY
Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
Morning Low 48 Afternoon High 66
WIND:
WEDNESDAY
Mixed sun and clouds. A chance of a shower.
Morning Low 49 Afternoon High 70
WIND: NW 6-12
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