ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Thursday May 4, 2006
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THE ALABAMA STORY: It is mostly a stormy and wet story, but with
some breaks. Overall, we should get quite a bit of rain by the time the
weekend is over. At least the temperatures will not be out of control.
Starting tomorrow and all the way through Sunday, we don't believe the high
temperature will reach 80. Don't cheer too much, because the old dew point
is going to be riding rather high which means there will be plenty of
humidity.

About the north half of the state continues under a slight risk of
severe weather for the remainder of this afternoon and overnight. Any severe
storms should be isolated in nature, but those could produce some damaging
winds and some large hail.

BIG QUESTION MARK SATURDAY: Our forecast over the weekend is hinged
greatly on a weak cold front and how far it will fight its way into the Deep
South. Two of our main weather models are fairly persistent that North and
Central Alabama will get a temporary break from the rain part of Saturday.
The weak front would need to push to near Montgomery for that to happen.
Regardless, a low pressure area will form on that front later and move
eastward. This will spread showers and thunderstorms back over most of the
state Saturday night and Sunday.

Bottom line: in the Birmingham area, where a major golf tournament
will be under way, there is a decent chance that a good part of Saturday may
be dry, but not Sunday.

DATELINE: GULF OF MEXICO: Data buoy #42001 was reporting a water
temperature of 80.1. A year ago at this time, it was 75.6. There is growing
concern that the Gulf of Mexico, across the board, has warmer water
temperatures than at this same time last year. And we all know what happened
last year. This means that we could see an early start to the tropical storm
season, although water temperature is just one piece of the pie. When the
sea surface temperature gets to the mid 80s, hurricanes really like that.
When it gets to about 86 or 87, it is like giving a kid all the candy he
wants.

David Emory Stooksbury, from the University of Georgia, advises that
sea surface temperatures reaching 82 does not normally occur until June.
This year, by early May, much of the Caribbean water had reached 82 degrees.
Not only are sea surface temperatures abnormally warm for early May, he
reports, but the entire hurricane season is expected to be very active.

MY TINY CORNER OF THE WORLD: My little stick-tight pal, Little Miss
Molly, tickles me when she is ready to fold up for the night. She will jump
up on my king-size bed, make about 10 revolutions and with a sudden loud
moan and groan, she will go kerplop. It feels like a minor earth tremor. A
number of times in the middle of the night, she will suddenly stand up,
stretch her neck as far upward as she can, moan some more, go round and
round in a circle for 10 or 15 times and plop down again. It's the way dogs
act. They are fun to watch. Life goes on.

J.B. Elliott
jbelliott@centurytel.net

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weathertalk: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/weathertalk.hrb

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TONIGHT
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few may be strong to severe.
Morning Low 64
WIND: SW 4-8

FRIDAY
Mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Morning Low 64 Afternoon High 78
WIND: SW 8-16

SATURDAY
Dry most of the morning, but more showers and storms later in the day and
increasing at night.
Morning Low 58 Afternoon High 76
WIND: N 5-10

SUNDAY
A good chance of showers and thunderstorms diminishing late.
Morning Low 61 Afternoon High 73
WIND: E 6-12

MONDAY
Partly sunny. Few, if any, showers.
Morning Low 56 Afternoon High 77
WIND: N 4-8

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