ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Saturday February 4, 2006
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GOOD AFTERNOON: Let me start by saying that forecasting snow in Alabama
has its challenges. And the situation that is unfolding for Sunday night
and Monday is no different. As Brian, so aptly said during this morning's
map discussion on the blog, there are several model runs between now and
then. Having said that, it is an interesting situation.

THE PLOT THICKENS: The numerical weather prediction models have been
consistently painting a picture of moisture moving into cold air over
Alabama tomorrow night and Monday morning. The position of the freezing
line up at about 5000 feet is critical. Temperatures need to be below
freezing at that level for snow to make it to the ground as snow before
melting. The lunchtime run of the NAM still shows that line somewhere in
the I-20 corridor Monday morning at sunrise. At the onset of the
precipitation, temperatures at the surface are expected to be near or just
above freezing. Dewpoints will be in the middle to upper 20s. As
precipitation begins to fall into the relatively drier air, evaporation
occurs. This process removes energy from the air and allows temperatures to
drop a few degrees. This evaporational cooling may allow temperatures to
drop enough below freezing to increase the likelihood of snow. We have seen
numerous cases where this has produced significant snowfall events. The
April 1987 surprise 7 inch snow. A January 1982 event that produced about
four inches in Birmingham. I think evaporational cooling will be involved
with this system.

THE FORECAST: Skies will clear tonight with temperatures dropping into
20s over the area. Sunday should dawn bright and clear with mostly sunny
skies expected for most of the day. Clouds will begin to move in late in
the day and overnight as low pressure approaches from the west.
Precipitation should reach western sections around midnight and overspread
much of the state during the overnight hours. The precipitation may fall as
snow over parts of North Alabama, generally along and north of the I-20
corridor. As a matter of fact, two to four inches of snow may fall in some
locations. Ground temperatures are warm enough to prevent significant
accumulations on roads unless snowfall rates are high enough to overcome the
effect. Winter storm watches may be required for parts of the area by
tomorrow morning.

South of the snow area, the precipitation type will changeover to a
rain/snow mix and then to rain the further south that you go. The system
will be moving quickly, and precipitation should end during the afternoon.
Tuesday looks to be a mostly sunny day. There were thoughts that a
Wednesday disturbance might be accompanied by a little snow, but that looks
unlikely.

A shot of cold air arrives on Thursday, and this shot is followed by a giant
trough of low pressure over the eastern United States that looks like it
will bring us potentially the coldest air of the season.

ON THIS DATE IN 1996: The nation was in the midst of the coldest weather
since 1989. The temperature in Waterloo, Iowa final went above zero at 3pm
to break an amazing string of 139 hours below zero that started at 7pm on
January 30th. LaCrosse, Wisconsin also set its record for longest period of
subzero temperatures (144 hours). Baton Rouge, Louisiana recorded their
all-time record high barometric pressure with a reading of 30.82 inches,
while the temperature remained below freezing continuously for 68 hours.

ON THIS DATE IN 1989: A huge winter storm pounded the West. Alta, Utah
picked up forty nine inches of snow in four days. Sixty six inches fell in
sex days at Wolf Creek Pass in Colorado As much as seven feet of snow fell
in northern New Mexico over a three day period.

Bill Murray
billmurray@worldnet.att.net

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weathertalk: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/weathertalk.hrb

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TONIGHT
Clear and chilly.
Morning Low 26
WIND: S 12-24

SUNDAY
Good deal of sunshine. A wintry mix of snow or rain begins overnight. Some
accumulation possible.
Morning Low 26 Afternoon High 49
WIND: W 7-14

MONDAY
Snow likely during morning for some areas. A cold rain in others.
Accumulations possible.
Morning Low 30 Afternoon High 38
WIND: E/NW 5-10

TUESDAY
Clearing skies.
Morning Low 26 Afternoon High 46
WIND: N 5-10

WEDNESDAY
Partly cloudy skies.
Morning Low 28 Afternoon High 50
WIND: N 5-10

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