ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Wednesday October 19, 2005
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A RED LETTER DAY: When an Air Force reconnaissance Hurricane Hunter plane
flew into Wilma early this morning over the western Caribbean, the monstrous
storm had been deepening at a dizzying rate for twenty four hours. The
central pressure measurements had been dropping like a rock, falling nearly
one hundred millibars in that time frame. The crew measured a barometric
reading of 894 millibars from a dropsonde, but estimated an even lower
pressure of 881 millibars. By the time all of the data was calibrated and
confirmed, the National Hurricane Center confirmed that we had a new
all-time record low pressure for an Atlantic Hurricane. The new top 6:

Wilma (2005) 882 millibars
Gilbert (1988) 888 millibars
Labor Day Storm (1935) 892 millibars
Rita (2005) 897 millibars
Allen (1980) 899 millibars
Katrina (2005) 902 millibars

TOP STORY: Suffice to say, Wilma is a Category Five monster. The
hurricane had an unbelievably tight eye, ranging in diameter from 2-4
nautical miles. I'll bet the Hurricane Hunters had a tough time staying
inside such a tight radius. This morning, the hurricane will likely undergo
cycles, with weakening followed by another period of intensification. The
hurricane will gradually turn more to the northwest and northwest as it
heads for the channel between the Yucatan and western Cuba, where Hurricane
Watches are in effect. It should then turn abruptly to the northeast ahead
of an approaching upper level trough and head for southern Florida. Our
friends along the Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Northwest Florida
coasts appear to be safe at this time, but we are dealing with a hurricane,
so all interests around the Gulf need to pay attention. Also, Wilma will
generate very strong swells all the way across the Gulf, and places like
Gulf Shores, Pensacola, Destin and Panama City will experience dangerous
riptides and rough surf this weekend. Southwest Florida will not be so
lucky, with landfall expected to come Saturday night south of Tampa. The
Fort Myers areas appears to be the most likely target. Wilma should weaken
some before then, but will still be a major Category Three hurricane. It
will cross the Peninsula and could impact New England early next week.
Remember 1938..

OUR WEATHER: Wilma will have no effect on our weather. Look for another
fine night tonight and day tomorrow. A broad trough of low pressure
advancing out of the Southwest will drive a cold front our way by Friday.
This front will bring a few showers to the area Friday and Friday night.
Temperatures will be falling back behind the front, and Friday night might
be unpleasant for the high school games. In fact, conditions all weekend
will be quite a shock after our extended warmth, with lots of low clouds, a
few light showers or some drizzle, and a biting north wind. Temperatures on
Saturday will be in the 60s at best over much of the area, and could very
well not get out of the 50s on Sunday or Monday. The clouds should hang
tough for much of the weekend, but when they break, probably Monday or
Tuesday morning, there could be a widespread frost across the area.

Bill Murray
billmurray@att.net

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weathertalk: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/weathertalk.hrb

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TONIGHT
Clear and comfortable.
Morning Low 59
WIND: Calm

THURSDAY
Continued mostly sunny and mild.
Morning Low 59 Afternoon High 86
WIND: S 5-10

FRIDAY
Becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of a shower.
Morning Low 64 Afternoon High 81
WIND: W 7-14

SATURDAY
Mostly cloudy, breezy and much cooler. A little light rain or drizzle
possible.
Morning Low 55 Afternoon High 66
WIND: NW 10-15

SUNDAY
Mostly cloudy and cool.
Morning Low 48 Afternoon High 62
WIND: N 7-14

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Tonight on ABC 33/40:

6:00pm ABC3340 News
6:30pm Wheel Fortune
7:00pm George Lopez
7:30pm Freddie
8:00pm Lost
9:00pm Invasion
10:00pm ABC3340 News
10:35pm The Zone

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