ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Saturday September 24, 2005
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GOOD AFTERNOON: Another historic storm to add to the annals of our recent
active hurricane seasons. Hurricane Rita made landfall around 2:30 a.m.
this morning just to the west of Cameron, Louisiana. Packing top winds of
120 mph, the Category Three hurricane likely caused a 15-20 foot storm surge
along the coast and into the inlets and estuaries along the low lying
coastline. Since Cameron was on the destructive east side of the
hurricane, I fear the worst for them. All one has to do is go back to 1957
and look at Hurricane Audrey for what may have been a good analogy. Both
hurricanes made landfall just west of Cameron. Almost certainly, there will
not be loss of life from Rita like there was from Audrey. Over 500 people
lost their lives in the 1957 Category Four hurricane.

RITA: The storm is weakening steadily over extreme West Texas today. It
will move generally north all day and into the overnight, reaching Northeast
Texas early tomorrow morning. By then, it should be downgraded to a
tropical depression. The official forecast calls for it to slow its forward
progress dramatically, virtually stalling over Southwest Arkansas.
Overnight model runs discounted the stalling proposition, with diverging
solutions as to what is going to happen. If the storm stalls, rainfall
amounts will be catastrophic, with as much as twenty five inches of rain
possible in some locations. It appears more likely that the moisture will
get caught up in an approaching trough and energize a frontal system that
will visit us by midweek. Until then, the remnant low is expected to drift
slowly to the east.

OUR WEATHER: Hurricanes are huge things. And even though Rita was not as
large or as powerful as Katrina, it still is influencing weather over a huge
area. Scattered showers and storms will occur today, with the highest
concentrations over western sections and activity thinning out as you head
from west to east. A warm, moist airmass will remain in place over Alabama
through Monday. Or Tuesday. In addition, the remnants of Rita may turn
eastward and move our way slowly. This means more scattered showers and
storms through the period, with some decent rainfall amounts possible. This
should finally spell an end to our extended dry period. The next several
days look to be wet with a couple of inches of rainfall, and perhaps more,
possible. A cold front should finally sweep through the area by Wednesday,
pushing out the moisture and allowing fair skies to return.

NEW ORLEANS: My heart sank on Friday morning as I watched the terrible
scenes of water overtopping the levees along the Industrial Canal in New
Orleans. I guess that it couldn't get much worse there. Thank goodness
someone talked Mayor Ray Nagin out of repopulating parts of the city. Where
does he get his information? There is also significant flooding in all of
the other parishes of southern Louisiana. Water was reportedly 10 feet deep
late last night in parts of Terrebonne Parish after several protective
levees broke.

Bill Murray
billmurray@att.net

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weathertalk: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/weathertalk.hrb

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TONIGHT
Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of showers and storms.
Morning Low 72
WIND: SE 8-18

SUNDAY
Continued breezy. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms.
Morning Low 72 Afternoon High 85
WIND: S 10-18

MONDAY
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Rainfall could be heavy.
Morning Low 71 Afternoon High 84
WIND: S 8-16

TUESDAY
Storms with heavy rainfall still possible.
Morning Low 72 Afternoon High 83
WIND: S 7-14

WEDNESDAY
Morning light rain and clouds giving way eventually to sunshine.
Morning Low 68 Afternoon High 84
WIND: NW 5-10

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