ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Saturday August 27, 2005
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GOOD AFTERNOON: It seems we have been doing this all too often the past
twelve months. Talking about another major hurricane threatening the
northern Gulf Coast, that is. Hurricane Katrina, the eleventh named storm
of the 2005 North Atlantic hurricane season will go down in history as a
monster. The storm is feasting on the 86-88 degree waters of the Gulf of
Mexico this afternoon. One phase of rapid intensification leveled off
finally this morning.

It resulted in elevating Katrina to Cat Three status. Another one is
probably not far behind and we could see a Cat Four hurricane later today.
The official NHC forecast strengthens Katrina to 140 mph by tomorrow
afternoon. Since intensity change is the least understood of the hurricane
processes, don't be surprised if Katrina is even stronger. That is not good
news.

FORECAST TRACK: We caution everyone with interests in the future path of
Katrina not to focus on that mesmerizing black line of the official forecast
track. Forecast errors, especially out this far are very large. The range
of landfall points where Katrina could end up spans over 300 miles of
coastline from Lake Charles, Louisiana to Destin, Florida. Most of the
model guidance this morning, including our global forecasting models, are
concentrated heavily in Southeast Louisiana. This is a very dangerous
situation for New Orleans, where southeasterly winds could funnel water into
Lake Ponchartrain from the east, forcing it over the levees and into the
city. Emergency management officials have been preaching this doomsday
scenario for years. Hopefully, it will not come to pass this time. There
are very detailed plans to reverse the flow of Southeast Louisiana highways
later to help get as many people as possible out of harms way.

COASTAL IMPACTS: Hurricane conditions are going to be experienced over a
wide area of the coast when Katrina makes her final move. Tropical storm
force winds will be felt above an area 325 miles wide at landfall. Winds
over 58 mph will be experienced over at least a 175 mile area. Hurricane
force winds will be experienced over a 100 mile wide spread. The core of
140 mph plus winds will cover an area around the eyewall. You can see, this
is going to be a monstrous storm. In addition, a powerful storm surge,
perhaps as high as 15-20 feet will smash the coast along with battering
waves. Tornadoes will be likely north and east of the center as it comes
ashore and heavy rainfall amounts will cause flooding.

OUR IMPACT: Today should be nice, with just a couple of isolated storms
forming, if any. We will see our humidity levels come up slowly along with
a light easterly breeze on Sunday. Things will begin to go downhill quickly
on Monday with increasing wind, rain and even possible tornadoes by
afternoon into the overnight hours. The horrible weather will last into
much of Tuesday with conditions slowly improving from the south during the
day. Better weather should follow Katrina, with drier air filtering in on
northwesterly winds behind the system.

ON THIS DATE IN 1893: The Sea Islands Hurricane came ashore near Beaufort,
South Carolina, killing 2,500 people. It is at least the fourth deadliest
U.S. hurricane.

Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weathertalk: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/weathertalk.hrb

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TONIGHT
Fair skies.
Morning Low 73
WIND: Calm

SUNDAY
Partly cloudy with a slight chance of PM showers and storms. Becoming
cloudy overnight.
Morning Low 73 Afternoon High 91
WIND: E 6-12

MONDAY
Increasing rain and wind. Flooding, damaging winds and tornadoes possible.

Morning Low 75 Afternoon High 85
WIND: SE 15-50

TUESDAY
High winds and very heavy rains, possible tornadoes.
Morning Low 75 Afternoon High 82
WIND: NW 45-15

WEDNESDAY
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower.
Morning Low 68 Afternoon High 90
WIND: NW 5-10

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Tonight on ABC 33/40:

6:00pm ABC3340 News
6:30pm Wheel of Fortune
7:00pm The Mexican
10:00pm ABC3340 News
10:35pm Maximum Exposure

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