ABC 33/40 E-Forecast - Special Update

This is an update to the E-Forecast that was sent earlier this afternoon:

ALABAMA MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A MAJOR HURRICANE: We are making wholesale
changes to our forecast early in the week. Things have taken a turn for the
worse with Hurricane Katrina and there is a possibility that Alabama will be
dealing with a major hurricane early in the week. Late this afternoon, the
National Hurricane Center made a major change in their track forecast. They
have been persistent that landfall number two with Katrina would be on the
NW Florida coast, maybe around Panama City. Now, the track has been shifted
a long way to the west near Biloxi on the Mississippi coast. Compounding
this bad news, is the fact that there are still strong indications that
Katrina will become a major hurricane before landfall. This could be a
Category 3 or even a Category 4. If this happens, she will be in the class
with Opal and Ivan. Wherever she makes landfall, damage could be widespread.

We certainly are not trying to be alarmists, but we are pointing out all of
the possibilities. She is expected to make landfall on the Mississippi coast
not far west of Mobile early Monday afternoon. This means that much of the
Alabama coast would be on the worst side of the hurricane and there could be
huge battering waves, a big storm surge and an enormous amount of rain, not
to mention the destructive winds. After landfall, the track angles NE
passing near Birmingham early Tuesday morning and then to near or east of
Huntsville Tuesday afternoon.

Assuming that she increases to a Category 4, there could be significant tree
and power line damage as far north as Birmingham with widespread power
outages. For the Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Annistom, Gadsden areas the worst
weather will be from late Monday through most of Tuesday morning. The
forecast track is the worst possible scenario for both Mobile and
Birmingham.

A BIG CAUTION: All of this is assuming that the NHC track is correct. Even
minor changes could change the impact on our area. It is, as usual, a watch
and wait situation. Katrina is going to be a big rain producer and, if that
track is correct, we could have extremely heavy rainfall amounts somewhat
like Hurricane Ivan.

Read more on the ABC 33/40 blog:
http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/wxtalk.php

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