ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Saturday July 9, 2005
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GOOD AFTERNOON: All eyes are on Hurricane Dennis in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. The storm weakened to a shadow of its former self as it passed over
the mountainous terrain of Cuba last night. Dennis was humbled from a rare
Category Four storm (the strongest of only four June or July category four
storms since 1886) to a category one hurricane this morning. The weakening
was caused by the mountainous terrain of Cuba. The center emerged into the
Gulf of Mexico overnight, but it has been slow to intensify. Disruption of
the core circulation occurred, and it is taking time for convection to build
back around the center. In addition, the storm has been moving over some
cooler water. By early afternoon, the eye, which had either temporarily
disappeared during weakening or was obscured by some high level cirrus
clouds was reappearing on satellite photos. Recon reports indicate that
although the storm looks better on satellite and the central pressure has
been slowly dropping, fortunately the winds have not been kept pace so far.

HOW STRONG WILL DENNIS BECOME? If intensification continues at the current
steady pace, Dennis will likely grow to be a strong category two hurricane
with top winds of about 110 mph. But there is that chance tat Dennis could
re-intensify into a category three storm with winds of 130 mph. In either
case, serious structural damage will result, especially if landfall occurs
in areas that were affected by Ivan when structures are weakened.

WHERE WILL IT GO? Second tough question. The NHC track was been
unwavering, despite some occasional different solutions proposed by the
models. The wild card that has developed is an upper level low south of
Louisiana. This feature may turn the storm more northward eventually,
meaning a landfall further east. This leads to the question...

WHAT SORT OF IMPACT WILL WE FEEL? Certainly, a track that carries the storm
into Mississippi lessens the impact on our weather in Central Alabama.
Assuming the hurricane makes landfall along the late morning NHC track
around 5 p.m. Sunday, it would be near Atmore by 8 p.m. By 8 a.m. Monday
morning, it would be just to the west of Columbus, Mississippi. If this
materializes, then the wind impact will be greatest west of I-65. Near the
track of the center, top winds will 60-80 mph, decreasing with time and
distance from the coast. An Inland Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for
all of Central Alabama for Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
Rainfall will measure 4-8 inches with occasional ten inch amounts across
much of Central Alabama. With our recent rains, this could cause flooding
problems. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of Central Alabama from
Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. Tornadoes will also be possible
across much of the area.

The characteristic high clouds will start overspreading the area this
afternoon. Clouds will thicken and lower overnight, becoming cloudy during
the morning hours. It will also be breezy. Showers will be possible by
lunchtime and become widespread during the afternoon hours. Rain and wind
will increase dramatically overnight with flooding, downed trees and
tornadoes possible.

Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weathertalk: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/weathertalk.hrb

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TONIGHT
Partly cloudy. Band of showers and storms moves through.
Morning Low 72
WIND: E 6-12

SUNDAY
Becoming cloudy and windy with showers developing. Increasing rain and
wind overnight.
Morning Low 72 Afternoon High 83
WIND: E 20-50, Gusts to 60

MONDAY
Flooding rains and tropical storm force winds. Possible tornadoes.
Morning Low 77 Afternoon High 82
WIND: SE 20-40; Gusts to 60

TUESDAY
Partly sunny with a chance of showers and storms.
Morning Low 72 Afternoon High 88
WIND: W 7-14

WEDNESDAY
A mix of clouds and sun, with a chance of showers and storms.
Morning Low 75 Afternoon High 89
WIND: W 6-12

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Tonight on ABC 33/40:

6:00pm ABC3340 News
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