ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Saturday February 26, 2005 ==================================================================
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GOOD AFTERNOON: Blue skies greeted the day across the area early this morning. A layer of high cirrus clouds overspread the sky during the morning hours. This layer of clouds has served to dim the sun a bit, but temperatures had already risen to near 60 degrees across North Central Alabama. The clouds are courtesy of a split flow in the upper level jet pattern over North America. The northern stream rides across the Pacific Northwest and across southern Canada before dipping over the Great Lakes.

The southern stream dives over the Pacific, picking up lots of moisture before crossing Old Mexico and running over the southern states.

RAIN TO RETURN: Low pressure is forming over the western Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. By tomorrow morning, this low will be located about 150 miles south of Mobile. Showers will overspread parts of South Alabama overnight tonight and will spread further north during the day on Sunday.

The models are diverging at this point, with the GFS carrying the primary low further east toward the Florida Big Bend, keeping most of the rain to our east and southeast. It then develops a secondary low and moves it across Northwest Alabama on Monday. In either case, we will experience rain Sunday and Sunday night, and some leftover showers on Monday.

The northern branch of the jet stream will kink into a huge trough over the eastern U.S. early in the week. This will allow cold air to spill into the state. Temperatures may have a hard time reaching 50 degrees on Monday across northern parts of the state, and most areas will see readings below freezing Monday night.

REST OF THE WEEK: Tuesday will be dry, breezy and cool. A disturbance will pass to our west Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. The atmosphere might be cold enough for the precipitation to come in the form of a few snow flurries over North Alabama Tuesday night, but this precipitation does not look significant. Another low will slide by over the weekend, bringing another chance of showers, but they should be liquid not frozen, we think.

It still appears that we will be in a very cold pattern through much of the next two weeks over the eastern half of the country.

ON THIS DATE IN 2002: 7.22 inches of rain fell on Hilo HI, setting a record. The heavy rains were the result of a Kona Low over the islands. Kona Lows are subtropical cyclones that form over the North Pacific during the cool season. They are one of the least understood weather phenomena that affect the island paradise, bringing high winds, heavy rains and flash flooding. Southwesterly winds around the Kona Low converged with the usual easterly trade winds and forced moist air up over the mountains on the east side of the Big Island, causing the heavy rains. Between December 2001 and the end of February Hilo had picked up nearly 60 inches of rain, compared to a normal of 28.35 inches. Meanwhile, on Oahu, Honolulu was reporting lower than normal rains during the same period, as northeasterly winds around the Kona Low descend down the mountains toward Honolulu, drying the air. Honolulu had only picked up 5.36 inches during the same period.

Bill Murray
bill@integralhospitality.com

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weathertalk: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/weathertalk.hrb

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TONIGHT
Becoming cloudy toward morning.
Morning Low 45
WIND: E 4-8

SUNDAY
Rain becoming likely.
Morning Low 45 Afternoon High 53
WIND: E 7-14

MONDAY
Cloudy, breezy and colder. A little light rain early.
Morning Low 41 Afternoon High 50
WIND: W/NW 10-18

TUESDAY
Partly cloudy and cool. Slight chance of an overnight shower (rain or snow?)
Morning Low 30 Afternoon High 49
WIND: N 6-12

WEDNESDAY
Partly cloudy skies.
Morning Low 30 Afternoon High 52
WIND: N 6-12

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