ABC 33/40 E-Forecast

ABC 33/40 E-FORECAST
Afternoon Edition For Saturday December 4, 2004
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GOOD AFTERNOON: On this beautiful late fall day, we turn our thoughts
toward the looming threat for flooding and severe weather during the next 72
hours. I know that's kind of hard to imagine on a day like today, but it
does appear that Alabama will experience another heavy rain and severe
weather event starting as early as tomorrow and lasting into early Tuesday.
Let's get started...

ROUND ONE: On satellite pictures this morning, we see a very active
southern branch of the jet stream stretching from the Pacific Ocean across
Texas and the Gulf Coastal states. Off the southern California coast, we
see the spinning gyre of an upper level low. This low is expected to open
up into a trough and shoot east northeastward later today. This disturbance
will affect us tomorrow. For today, a minor trough has served to press high
clouds to our south over southern sections of the state. This mean blue
skies will continue through this evening. By later tonight, the disturbance
will spin up a surface low pressure system over the Plains states. This
will push a warm front out of the Gulf of Mexico. We will see clouds
thicken overnight and winds pick up out of the southeast. By morning, skies
should be completely cloudy Rain will invade southwestern sections of the
state during the morning and quickly overspread the area. Aided by strong
mid-level winds, copious amounts of moisture will overspread the dome of
cool air over Alabama, producing widespread and rather heavy rainfall.
Thunderstorms do no appear likely, so I have removed that from tomorrow's
forecast. By Monday morning, as much as 2.50 inches of rain may fall over
parts of North and Central Alabama.

ROUND TWO: The energy from the initial system will pass to the northeast
Sunday night. Rain should begin to diminish during the overnight hours as
the disturbance passes. A second, stronger trough will be swinging through
the Southwest by that time. It will pass out on to the Plains Monday
morning and rotate northeastward. This stronger trough will spark a second
round of showers and thunderstorms. Plenty of warm, moist air will be in
place across Alabama by Monday morning. If we get a little sunshine on
Monday, the atmosphere will rapidly become unstable. In addition, upper
level wind fields are expected to be quite strong, so any storms that do
develop during the day on Monday could become severe with the possibility of
not only damaging winds, but also tornadoes. As the trough sweeps a cold
front our way, a powerful squall line will form Monday night and pass
through the state. This line will also have the potential to produce severe
weather. In addition, more heavy rainfall amounts may be measured on
Monday, with another one to three inches of rain possible. This raises the
possibility of flooding.

REST OF THE WEEK: Tuesday should feature blustery, cloudy and cooler
conditions with a little light rain. Wednesday should be a relatively nice
day, with clearing skies and mild temperatures. By Thursday morning,
another low pressure center will be over South Texas. It will sweep
northeast to a position northwest of Alabama by Friday morning. This means
increasing clouds and a good chance of rain and more storms on Thursday and
Friday. A front should sweep through early on Friday, but clouds may hang
tough into Saturday.

ON THIS DATE IN 1886: Heavy snow fell on parts of the South and southern
Appalachians on the 4th through the 6th. Montgomery recorded their greatest
snow of record when 11 inches fell. An amazing 25 inches fell in Rome GA
and 33 inches fell in Asheville NC.

Bill Murray
billmurray@worldnet.att.net

ABC 33/40 7 Day Planner: http://abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb
ABC 33/40 Weathertalk: http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/weathertalk.hrb

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TONIGHT
Clouds thicken overnight.
Morning Low 45
WIND: Light

SUNDAY
Rain becoming likely. Heavy rainfall possible during afternoon into
overnight hours.
Morning Low 45 Afternoon High 62
WIND: SE 6-12

MONDAY
Breezy with showers and thunderstorms. Come storms could be severe and
rainfall could be heavy.
Morning Low 57 Afternoon High 72
WIND: SW 10-20

TUESDAY
Rain and storms ending during morning, then cloudy and breezy with a little
light rain.
Morning Low 61 Afternoon High 66
WIND: NW 10-18

WEDNESDAY
Becoming partly cloudy.
Morning Low 51 Afternoon High 63
WIND: N 4-8

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